IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil volatility and sovereign risk of BRICS


  • Bouri, Elie
  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain
  • Raza, Naveed
  • Roubaud, David


We study the dependence between oil implied volatility shocks and BRICS sovereign risk from July 2009 to March 2017. First, we examine spillovers in value at risk using multivariate regression quantiles and reveal that oil volatility represents a common risk for oil-exporting and oil-importing BRICS countries. We also employ a quantile impulse-response function and reveal the presence of an asymmetry in the mechanisms of shock transmissions between oil exporters (Russia and Brazil) and oil importers (China and India): the former are more sensitive to positive oil shocks, whereas the latter are more sensitive to negative oil shocks. Second, we measure the directional predictability in the quantiles using the bivariate cross-quantilogram approach and show that in most cases, a low- (high-) volatility of oil market predicts low (high) sovereign risk at various quantiles and lags. Policy implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Oil volatility and sovereign risk of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 258-269.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:258-269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.12.018

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Han, Heejoon & Linton, Oliver & Oka, Tatsushi & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2016. "The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 251-270.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2017. "Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 571-581.
    4. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Nikolova, Biljana, 2009. "Return, volatility spillovers and dynamic correlation in the BRIC equity markets: An analysis using a bivariate EGARCH framework," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 203-218.
    5. White, Halbert & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Manganelli, Simone, 2015. "VAR for VaR: Measuring tail dependence using multivariate regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 169-188.
    6. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park, 2016. "Fundamentals and Sovereign Risk of Emerging Markets," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 151-177, May.
    7. Manganelli, Simone & White, Halbert & Kim, Tae-Hwan, 2008. "Modeling autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis with multi-quantile CAViaR," Working Paper Series 957, European Central Bank.
    8. Amstad, Marlene & Remolona, Eli & Shek, Jimmy, 2016. "How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-48.
    9. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, February.
    10. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    11. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
    12. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2013. "Oil price uncertainty and sovereign risk: Evidence from Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 51-57.
    13. Liu, Ming-Lei & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2013. "How does oil market uncertainty interact with other markets? An empirical analysis of implied volatility index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 860-868.
    14. Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming & Li, Jianping, 2016. "Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 234-245.
    15. Linton, O. & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2007. "The quantilogram: With an application to evaluating directional predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 250-282, November.
    16. Herve Alexandre & Benoist Antonin De, 2010. "Oil prices and government bond risk premiums," Post-Print halshs-00642191, HAL.
    17. Simon Ville & Olav Wicken, 2013. "The dynamics of resource-based economic development: evidence from Australia and Norway," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 1341-1371, October.
    18. Holden, Steinar, 2013. "Avoiding the resource curse the case Norway," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 870-876.
    19. Bouri, Elie & Jain, Anshul & Biswal, P.C. & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Cointegration and nonlinear causality amongst gold, oil, and the Indian stock market: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 201-206.
    20. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Bouri, Elie, 2016. "The directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: New evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 78-93.
    21. Emma Hooper, 2015. "Oil and Gas, which is the Belle of the Ball ? The Impact of Oil and Gas Reserves on Sovereign Risk," Working Papers halshs-01211506, HAL.
    22. Cruces, Juan J., 2006. "Statistical properties of country credit ratings," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 27-51, March.
    23. Da Fonseca, José & Ignatieva, Katja & Ziveyi, Jonathan, 2016. "Explaining credit default swap spreads by means of realized jumps and volatilities in the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 215-228.
    24. Bouri, Elie & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina, 2017. "Volatility transmission from commodity markets to sovereign CDS spreads in emerging and frontier countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 155-165.
    25. Emma Hooper, 2015. "Oil and Gas, which is the Belle of the Ball ? The Impact of Oil and Gas Reserves on Sovereign Risk," AMSE Working Papers 1540, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 02 Oct 2015.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Godil, Danish Iqbal & Sarwat, Salman & Sharif, Arshian & Jermsittiparsert, Kittisak, 2020. "How oil prices, gold prices, uncertainty and risk impact Islamic and conventional stocks? Empirical evidence from QARDL technique," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Wang, Jun & Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping, 2020. "How do sovereign credit default swap spreads behave under extreme oil price movements? Evidence from G7 and BRICS countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    3. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Risk spillovers between oil and stock markets: A VAR for VaR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 524-535.
    4. Foglia, Matteo & Angelini, Eliana, 2020. "The diabolical sovereigns/banks risk loop: A VAR quantile design," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    5. Bouri, Elie & Lucey, Brian & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Dynamics and determinants of spillovers across the option-implied volatilities of US equities," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 257-264.
    6. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Sarwar, Suleman & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "Analysing volatility spillover between the oil market and the stock market in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries: Implications on portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 22-32.
    7. Naifar, Nader & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Dynamic nonlinear impacts of oil price returns and financial uncertainties on credit risks of oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Makushkin, Mikhail & Lapshin, Victor, 2020. "Modelling tail dependencies between Russian and foreign stock markets: Application for market risk valuation," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 57, pages 30-52.
    9. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wang, Shixuan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US government bond risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2020. "Movements in international bond markets: The role of oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 47-58.
    11. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Naveed Raza & David Roubaud, 2019. "Asymmetric impacts of disaggregated oil price shocks on uncertainties and investor sentiment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 901-921, April.
    12. Semei Coronado & Rangan Gupta & Saban Nazlioglu & Omar Rojas, 2020. "Time-Varying Causality between Bond and Oil Markets of the United States: Evidence from Over One and Half Centuries of Data," Working Papers 202006, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Jose Arreola-Hernandez & David Roubaud & Stelios Bekiros, 2019. "Spillover across Eurozone credit market sectors and determinants," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(59), pages 6333-6349, December.
    14. Jonek-Kowalska, Izabela, 2019. "Efficiency of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) systems. Comparative analysis in the fuel sector and energy sector on the basis of Central-European companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 405-415.
    15. Shangle, Ai & Solaymani, Saeed, 2020. "Responses of monetary policies to oil price changes in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    16. Jia, Linlu & Ke, Jinchuan & Wang, Jun, 2020. "Fluctuation behavior analysis of stochastic exclusion financial dynamics with random jump," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    17. Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Kizys, Renatas, 2020. "Oil price shocks and EMU sovereign yield spreads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

    More about this item


    Oil implied volatility; Sovereign risk; BRICS CDS; Cross-quantilogram; Quantile dependence; Spillover;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:258-269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.