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Oil volatility and sovereign risk of BRICS

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  • Bouri, Elie
  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain
  • Raza, Naveed
  • Roubaud, David

Abstract

We study the dependence between oil implied volatility shocks and BRICS sovereign risk from July 2009 to March 2017. First, we examine spillovers in value at risk using multivariate regression quantiles and reveal that oil volatility represents a common risk for oil-exporting and oil-importing BRICS countries. We also employ a quantile impulse-response function and reveal the presence of an asymmetry in the mechanisms of shock transmissions between oil exporters (Russia and Brazil) and oil importers (China and India): the former are more sensitive to positive oil shocks, whereas the latter are more sensitive to negative oil shocks. Second, we measure the directional predictability in the quantiles using the bivariate cross-quantilogram approach and show that in most cases, a low- (high-) volatility of oil market predicts low (high) sovereign risk at various quantiles and lags. Policy implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Oil volatility and sovereign risk of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 258-269.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:258-269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.12.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Godil, Danish Iqbal & Sarwat, Salman & Sharif, Arshian & Jermsittiparsert, Kittisak, 2020. "How oil prices, gold prices, uncertainty and risk impact Islamic and conventional stocks? Empirical evidence from QARDL technique," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Wang, Jun & Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping, 2020. "How do sovereign credit default swap spreads behave under extreme oil price movements? Evidence from G7 and BRICS countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    3. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Risk spillovers between oil and stock markets: A VAR for VaR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 524-535.
    4. Foglia, Matteo & Angelini, Eliana, 2020. "The diabolical sovereigns/banks risk loop: A VAR quantile design," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    5. Bouri, Elie & Lucey, Brian & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Dynamics and determinants of spillovers across the option-implied volatilities of US equities," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 257-264.
    6. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Sarwar, Suleman & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "Analysing volatility spillover between the oil market and the stock market in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries: Implications on portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 22-32.
    7. Naifar, Nader & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Dynamic nonlinear impacts of oil price returns and financial uncertainties on credit risks of oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Makushkin, Mikhail & Lapshin, Victor, 2020. "Modelling tail dependencies between Russian and foreign stock markets: Application for market risk valuation," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 57, pages 30-52.
    9. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wang, Shixuan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US government bond risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2020. "Movements in international bond markets: The role of oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 47-58.
    11. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Naveed Raza & David Roubaud, 2019. "Asymmetric impacts of disaggregated oil price shocks on uncertainties and investor sentiment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 901-921, April.
    12. Semei Coronado & Rangan Gupta & Saban Nazlioglu & Omar Rojas, 2020. "Time-Varying Causality between Bond and Oil Markets of the United States: Evidence from Over One and Half Centuries of Data," Working Papers 202006, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Jose Arreola-Hernandez & David Roubaud & Stelios Bekiros, 2019. "Spillover across Eurozone credit market sectors and determinants," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(59), pages 6333-6349, December.
    14. Jonek-Kowalska, Izabela, 2019. "Efficiency of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) systems. Comparative analysis in the fuel sector and energy sector on the basis of Central-European companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 405-415.
    15. Shangle, Ai & Solaymani, Saeed, 2020. "Responses of monetary policies to oil price changes in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    16. Jia, Linlu & Ke, Jinchuan & Wang, Jun, 2020. "Fluctuation behavior analysis of stochastic exclusion financial dynamics with random jump," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    17. Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Kizys, Renatas, 2020. "Oil price shocks and EMU sovereign yield spreads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil implied volatility; Sovereign risk; BRICS CDS; Cross-quantilogram; Quantile dependence; Spillover;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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