IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/drm/wpaper/2020-31.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dependence structure between oil price volatility and sovereign credit risk of oil exporters: Evidence using a Copula Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Yao Axel Ehouman

Abstract

This paper re-examines the dependence structure between uncertainty in oil prices and sovereign credit risk of oil exporters. To address this issue, we employ a copula approach that allows us to capture a myriad of complex and nonlinear dependence structures. Empirical analyses involve daily data of the 5-year sovereign credit default swaps spreads and the crude oil implied volatility from January 2010 to May 2019, covering a sample of ten oil-exporting countries. Except for Brazil and Venezuela, our results provide evidence of significant positive and upper tail dependence in the relationship between oil market uncertainty and oil exporters’ sovereign risk. Overall, our findings highlight that high uncertainty in oil prices coincides with large-scale increases in the sovereign credit risk of oil-exporting countries, supporting the hypothesis that investors, exposed to economic losses from risk events in oil exporters, are all the more pessimistic that prevails high uncertainty about future oil prices. Our findings have implications for oil exporter’ policymakers as well as investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Yao Axel Ehouman, 2020. "Dependence structure between oil price volatility and sovereign credit risk of oil exporters: Evidence using a Copula Approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-31, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2020-31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2020/WP_EcoX_2020-31.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Naifar, Nader & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Directional predictability from oil market uncertainty to sovereign credit spreads of oil-exporting countries: Evidence from rolling windows and crossquantilogram analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 327-339.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
    3. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "On the link between forward energy prices: A nonlinear panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1170-1175.
    4. Pavlova, Ivelina & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Parhizgari, Ali M., 2018. "A dynamic spillover analysis of crude oil effects on the sovereign credit risk of exporting countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 10-22.
    5. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Dramane & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil-exporting countries: The role of financial development," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 185-201.
    6. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    7. Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Oil volatility and sovereign risk of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 258-269.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 1983. "LDC's Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 1172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Nguyen, Cuong C. & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2012. "Copula model dependency between oil prices and stock markets: Evidence from China and Vietnam," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 758-773.
    10. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2017. "Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 571-581.
    11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    12. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    13. Comelli, Fabio, 2012. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads: Estimation and back-testing," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 598-625.
    14. Patton, Andrew J, 2001. "Modelling Time-Varying Exchange Rate Dependence Using the Conditional Copula," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt01q7j1s2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    15. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Policy Research Notes (PRNs) 94725, The World Bank.
    16. Genest C. & Boies J-C., 2003. "Detecting Dependence With Kendall Plots," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 57, pages 275-284, November.
    17. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
    18. Lutz Kilian, 2017. "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(6), pages 137-160, November.
    19. Frank Packer & Chamaree Suthiphongchai, 2003. "Sovereign credit default swaps," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    20. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    21. Chuffart, Thomas & Hooper, Emma, 2019. "An investigation of oil prices impact on sovereign credit default swaps in Russia and Venezuela," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 904-916.
    22. Ciarlone, Alessio & Piselli, Paolo & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2009. "Emerging markets' spreads and global financial conditions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 222-239, April.
    23. Sukcharoen, Kunlapath & Zohrabyan, Tatevik & Leatham, David & Wu, Ximing, 2014. "Interdependence of oil prices and stock market indices: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 331-339.
    24. Broto, Carmen & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2015. "Disentangling contagion among sovereign CDS spreads during the European debt crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 165-179.
    25. Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Amine Mati, 2011. "Political and Fiscal Risk Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 251-263, May.
    26. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    27. Kocsis, Zalan & Monostori, Zoltan, 2016. "The role of country-specific fundamentals in sovereign CDS spreads: Eastern European experiences," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-168.
    28. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    29. Sebastian Edwards, 1983. "LDC's Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation 1976-1980," UCLA Economics Working Papers 323, UCLA Department of Economics.
    30. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    31. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2013. "Oil price uncertainty and sovereign risk: Evidence from Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 51-57.
    32. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2009. "Oil shocks and external balances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 181-194, April.
    33. Fermanian, Jean-David, 2005. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 119-152, July.
    34. Bouri, Elie & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina, 2017. "Volatility transmission from commodity markets to sovereign CDS spreads in emerging and frontier countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 155-165.
    35. Shanta Devarajan & Lili Mottaghi, "undated". "MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2015 : Plunging Oil Prices," World Bank Publications - Reports 21349, The World Bank Group.
    36. Kulatilaka, Nalin & Marcus, Alan J., 1987. "A model of strategic default of sovereign debt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 483-498, December.
    37. International Monetary Fund, 2019. "Qatar: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2019/147, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    39. Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming & Li, Jianping, 2016. "Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 234-245.
    40. Samya Beidas-Strom & Mr. Andrea Pescatori, 2014. "Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation," IMF Working Papers 2014/218, International Monetary Fund.
    41. Lili Mottaghi, 2015. "MENA Quarterly Economic Brief : Plunging Oil Prices," World Bank Publications - Reports 21462, The World Bank Group.
    42. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
    43. Mr. Alberto Behar & Robert A Ritz, 2016. "An Analysis of OPEC’s Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash," IMF Working Papers 2016/131, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Fisher N. I. & Switzer P., 2001. "Graphical Assessment of Dependence: Is a Picture Worth 100 Tests?," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 55, pages 233-239, August.
    45. Mr. Balazs Csonto & Mr. Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2013. "Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets: Local Fundamentals and Global Factors vs. Ever-Changing Misalignments," IMF Working Papers 2013/164, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.
    47. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2006. "The Role of Global Risk Aversion in Explaining Sovereign Spreads," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2006), pages 125-155, August.
    48. Christoph Wegener & Tobias Basse & Frederik Kunze & Hans-Jörg von Mettenheim, 2016. "Oil prices and sovereign credit risk of oil producing countries: an empirical investigation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1961-1968, December.
    49. Mr. Fabio Comelli, 2012. "Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Estimation and Back-testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/212, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ehouman, Yao Axel, 2021. "Dependence structure between oil price volatility and sovereign credit risk of oil exporters: Evidence using a copula approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 76-97.
    2. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2021. "Dependence structure between oil price volatility and sovereign credit risk of oil exporters : Evidence using a Copula Approach," Post-Print hal-03348410, HAL.
    3. Pavlova, Ivelina & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Parhizgari, Ali M., 2018. "A dynamic spillover analysis of crude oil effects on the sovereign credit risk of exporting countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 10-22.
    4. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2022. "Linkage dynamics of sovereign credit risk and financial markets: A bibliometric analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Zhang, Zhengyong & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Tail risk transmission from commodity prices to sovereign risk of emerging economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Elie Bouri, 2019. "The Effect of Jumps in the Crude Oil Market on the Sovereign Risks of Major Oil Exporters," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Kocsis, Zalan & Monostori, Zoltan, 2016. "The role of country-specific fundamentals in sovereign CDS spreads: Eastern European experiences," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-168.
    8. Cheuathonghua, Massaporn & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina & Wongkantarakorn, Jutamas, 2022. "Extreme risk spillovers from commodity indexes to sovereign CDS spreads of commodity dependent countries: A VAR quantile analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Bouri, Elie & Kachacha, Imad & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Oil market conditions and sovereign risk in MENA oil exporters and importers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2024. "Oil price uncertainly and sovereign credit risk in GCC countries: fresh evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 457-482, May.
    11. Audzeyeva, Alena & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2018. "On the predictability of emerging market sovereign credit spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 140-157.
    12. Chuffart, Thomas & Hooper, Emma, 2019. "An investigation of oil prices impact on sovereign credit default swaps in Russia and Venezuela," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 904-916.
    13. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    14. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01128239, HAL.
    15. Hajer Dachraoui & Mounir Smida & Maamar Sebri, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 15-33.
    16. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Determinants of sovereign credit risk: the case of Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 51-70, January.
    17. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    18. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Patricia Crifo & Marc-Arthur Diaye & Rim Oueghlissi & Bert Scholtens, 2016. "Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performance and sovereign bond spreads: an empirical analysis of OECD countries," Working Papers hal-01401718, HAL.
    19. Cayirli, Omer & Aktas, Huseyin & Kayalidere, Koray, 2022. "A closer look into the behavior of emerging market sovereign spreads: State-dependent and asymmetric behaviors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 522-548.
    20. Jiang, Yong & Liu, Cenjie & Xie, Rui, 2021. "Oil price shocks and credit spread: Structural effect and dynamic spillover," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Copula; Dependence; Oil market; Sovereign credit risk; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2020-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valerie Mignon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/modemfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.