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Oil shocks and external balances

  • Kilian, Lutz
  • Rebucci, Alessandro
  • Spatafora, Nikola

We provide estimates of the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances, including the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account, capital gains, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA). First, we show that the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Our results provide evidence of an intermediate degree of international financial integration. Second, we document the presence of large and systematic valuation effects in response to these shocks. Valuation effects overall tend to cushion the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the NFA positions of oil exporters and oil importers. Third, we quantify the overall importance of global business cycle demand shocks as well as oil-market specific demand and supply shocks for external balances.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 77 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 181-194

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:77:y:2009:i:2:p:181-194
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  1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  3. Fabio Ghironi & Jaewoo Lee & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "The Valuation Channel of External Adjustment," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 722, Boston College Department of Economics.
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  5. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
  6. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
  7. Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1979. "Exogeneity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 162, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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  10. Berkowitz, J. & Birgean, I. & Kilian, L., 1999. "On the Finite-Sample Accuracy of Nonparametric Resampling Algorithms for Economic Time Series," Papers 99-01, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
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  16. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," NBER Working Papers 0852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
  18. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(5), pages 845-859.
  19. Kilian, Lutz, 2008. "Why Does Gasoline Cost so Much? A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Gavin, Michael, 1990. "Structural adjustment to a terms of trade disturbance : The role of relative prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 217-243, May.
  21. Gavin, Michael, 1991. "Income effects of adjustment to a terms of trade disturbance and the demand for adjustment finance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 127-153, November.
  22. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, 03.
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