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Interdependence of oil prices and stock market indices: A copula approach

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  • Sukcharoen, Kunlapath
  • Zohrabyan, Tatevik
  • Leatham, David
  • Wu, Ximing

Abstract

In this paper we study the relationship between the oil price and stock market index of various countries between 1982 and 2007. We exclude oil and gas stock companies from the stock indices to remove the obvious direct linkage. Oil price series are converted into local currency to account for possible exchange rate effects. The method of copula is used to model the general dependence between stock returns and oil price returns. Our findings suggest a weak dependence between oil prices and stock indices for most cases, which are consistent with the results from previous studies. Exceptions are for the stock index returns of large oil consuming and producing countries (United States and Canada), which are shown to have a relatively strong dependence with the oil price series. The introduction of Euro in 1999 altered considerably dependence between oil prices and stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Sukcharoen, Kunlapath & Zohrabyan, Tatevik & Leatham, David & Wu, Ximing, 2014. "Interdependence of oil prices and stock market indices: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 331-339.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:44:y:2014:i:c:p:331-339
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.012
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    1. Esin Cakan & Rıza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2017. "Oil Speculation and Herding Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets," Working Papers 201749, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Marimoutou, Vêlayoudom & Soury, Manel, 2015. "Energy markets and CO2 emissions: Analysis by stochastic copula autoregressive model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 417-429.
    3. Suliman Zakaria S. Abdalla, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Sudanese Stock Market Performance," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    4. Khaled Guesmi & Zied Fiti & Ilyes Abid & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2016. "On the Time Varying Relationship between Oil Price and G7 Equity index: a Multivariate Approach," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 13(1), pages 67-79, June.
    5. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Manel Soury, 2015. "Energy Markets and CO2 Emissions: Analysis by Stochastic Copula Autoregressive Model," AMSE Working Papers 1520, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
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    7. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Wen, Shaobo & Jia, Xiaoliang, 2016. "The global interdependence among oil-equity nexuses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 259-271.
    8. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2016. "Quantile dependence of oil price movements and stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 33-49.
    9. Stavrakoudis, Athanassios & Panagiotou, Dimitrios, 2016. "Price dependence between coffee qualities: a copula model to evaluate asymmetric responses," MPRA Paper 75994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:eee:eneeco:v:68:y:2017:i:c:p:151-159 is not listed on IDEAS
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    13. Zhang, Dayong & Cao, Hong & Dickinson, David G. & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Free cash flows and overinvestment: Further evidence from Chinese energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 116-124.
    14. Bouri, Elie, 2015. "Return and volatility linkages between oil prices and the Lebanese stock market in crisis periods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 365-371.
    15. Jammazi, Rania & Reboredo, Juan C., 2016. "Dependence and risk management in oil and stock markets. A wavelet-copula analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 866-888.
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    17. He, Kaijian & Liu, Youjin & Yu, Lean & Lai, Kin Keung, 2016. "Multiscale dependence analysis and portfolio risk modeling for precious metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-233.
    18. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Wen, Shaobo & Hao, Xiaoqing, 2017. "The multiscale impact of exchange rates on the oil-stock nexus: Evidence from China and Russia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 667-678.
    19. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Manel Soury, 2015. "Energy Markets and CO2 Emissions: Analysis by Stochastic Copula Autoregressive Model," Working Papers halshs-01148746, HAL.
    20. Zhu, Huiming & Guo, Yawei & You, Wanhai & Xu, Yaqin, 2016. "The heterogeneity dependence between crude oil price changes and industry stock market returns in China: Evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 30-41.
    21. BENKRAIEM, Ramzi & Lahiani, Amine & MILOUDI, Anthony & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "New Insights into the US Stock Market Reactions to Energy Price Shocks," MPRA Paper 84778, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Feb 2018.
    22. Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Hui & Peng, Cheng & Yang, Yan, 2016. "Extreme dependence between crude oil and stock markets in Asia-Pacific regions: Evidence from quantile regression," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-46, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International stock markets; Copula; Dependence; Oil prices;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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