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Oil price shocks and the U.S. economy: where does the asymmetry originate?

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Abstract

Rising oil prices appear to retard aggregate U.S. economic activity by more than falling oil prices stimulate it. Past research suggests adjustment costs and/or monetary policy may be possible explanations ofthe asymmetric response. This paper uses a quasi-vector autoregressive model of U. S. economy to examine from where the asymmetry might originate. The analysis uses counterfactual impulse response experiments to detennine that monetary policy alone cannot account for the asymmetry. The robustness ofshort-lived asymmetry across the base case and counterfactuals is consistent with the adjustment-cost explanation.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 1999. "Oil price shocks and the U.S. economy: where does the asymmetry originate?," Working Papers 9911, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:99-11
    Note: Published as: Balke, Nathan S., Stephen P.A. Brown and Mine K. Yücel (2002), "Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Economy: Where Does the Asymmetry Originate?," The Energy Journal 23 (3): 27-52.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
    2. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 2001. "Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 465-512, December.
    3. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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