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Role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities: An SVAR approach to the Malaysian economy and monetary responses


  • Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher
  • Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul


This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on Malaysian macroeconomic activities and monetary responses. We use a structural VAR (SVAR) model based on monthly data over the period 1986−2009. The EGARCH model estimates show an important asymmetric effect of oil price shocks on the conditional oil price volatility. Dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the SVAR model show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on Malaysian industrial production. We also find that levels of Consumer Price Index (CPI) decline with a positive shock to oil price uncertainty. This is the result of negative demand shock due to the postponement of consumption of big ticket items by individuals, households and other sectors of the economy. We also found that the Malaysian central bank adopts an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price uncertainty. Variance decomposition analysis reconfirms that volatility in the oil price is the second most important factor to explain the variance of industrial production after its own shocks. These results shed some light on how the central bank of Malaysia can use controlling mechanisms to stabilize aggregate output and price level.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul, 2011. "Role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities: An SVAR approach to the Malaysian economy and monetary responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8062-8069.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:12:p:8062-8069 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.067

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    2. Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
    3. Magnani, Natalia & Vaona, Andrea, 2013. "Regional spillover effects of renewable energy generation in Italy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 663-671.
    4. Behrouzi, Fatemeh & Nakisa, Mehdi & Maimun, Adi & Ahmed, Yasser M., 2016. "Global renewable energy and its potential in Malaysia: A review of Hydrokinetic turbine technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1270-1281.
    5. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Dynamic effects of rising oil prices on consumer energy prices in Canada and the United States: Evidence from the last half a century," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 33-44.
    6. Ramiz Rahmanov, 2016. "Permanent and Temporary Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomic Policy, and Tradable Non-oil Sector: Case of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia," Working Papers 1609, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    7. Chong, Heap-Yih & Lam, Wei-Haur, 2013. "Ocean renewable energy in Malaysia: The potential of the Straits of Malacca," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 169-178.
    8. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:315-327 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Razmi, Fatemeh & Mohamed, Azali & Chin, Lee & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2015. "The role of monetary policy in macroeconomic volatility of ASEAN-4 countries against oil price shock over time," MPRA Paper 65714, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:eco:journ1:2017-02-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Pires Manso, José Ramos, 2014. "The linkage between crude oil consumption and economic growth in Latin America: The panel framework investigations for multiple regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-241.
    12. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2017. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Vulnerability to Oil Price Shock as against US Economy Shock?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 544-550.
    13. Abbas Ali Abounoori & Rafik Nazarian & Ashkan Amiri, 2014. "Oil Price Pass-Through into Domestic Inflation: The Case of Iran," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 662-669.
    14. Adam, P. & Rianse, U. & Harafah, Ĺ. M. & Cahyono, E. & Rafiy, M., 2016. "A Model of the Dynamics of the Effect of World Crude Oil Price and World Rice Price on Indonesia’s Inflation Rate," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(1), March.
    15. Fallahi, Firouz, 2011. "Causal relationship between energy consumption (EC) and GDP: A Markov-switching (MS) causality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4165-4170.
    16. repec:asi:eneclt:2016:p:17-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2014. "Permanent and transitory oil volatility and aggregate investment in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 552-563.
    18. Liu, Jing-Yu & Lin, Shih-Mo & Xia, Yan & Fan, Ying & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A financial CGE model analysis: Oil price shocks and monetary policy responses in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 534-543.
    19. Meng, Xiangcai & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2016. "Nonlinear models for the sources of real effective exchange rate fluctuations: Evidence from the Republic of Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 21-30.
    20. Fatemeh Razmi & Azali Mohamed & Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2015. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Macroeconomic Volatility of Association of Southeast Asian Nations-4 Countries against Oil Price Shock over Time," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 731-737.


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