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Oil price uncertainty, monetary policy and the macroeconomy: The Canadian perspective

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  • Bashar, Omar H.M.N.
  • Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul
  • Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher

Abstract

This paper revisits the link between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomy in the context of a net oil exporting country, Canada. Results obtained from alternative Structural VAR models suggest that while shocks to oil price level do not affect the aggregate level of output, the oil price uncertainty exerts considerable impacts on the Canadian economy. It is found that oil price uncertainty makes a major contribution to overall variations in the output level. Results also show that higher oil price uncertainty significantly decreases both output and price levels, resembling an adverse demand shock. Oil price uncertainty causes output to decline in most of the sub-sectors including durable and non-durable manufacturing. It is found that the Central Bank of Canada reacts with an expansionary monetary policy to oil price uncertainty shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher, 2013. "Oil price uncertainty, monetary policy and the macroeconomy: The Canadian perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-259.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:249-259
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.07.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fuentes, Fernanda & Herrera, Rodrigo & Clements, Adam, 2018. "Modeling extreme risks in commodities and commodity currencies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 108-120.
    2. repec:eee:eneeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:334-356 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
    4. Moses Tule & Afees A. Salisu & Charles Chimeke, 2018. "You are what you eat: The role of oil price in Nigeria inflation forecast," Working Papers 040, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    5. Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
    6. Zhang, Chuanguo & Tu, Xiaohua, 2016. "The effect of global oil price shocks on China's metal markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 131-139.
    7. Salisu, Afees A. & Ademuyiwa, Idris & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Revisiting the forecasting accuracy of Phillips curve: The role of oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 334-356.
    8. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00609 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:51:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0668-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Mamothoana Difeto & Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth: Evidence from Advanced OECD Countries using over One Century of Data," Working Papers 201813, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price uncertainty; Structural VAR; Monetary Policy; Canada;

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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