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Commodity dependence: Providing information on emerging market CDS spreads when economic indicators are absent

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  • Ordu-Akkaya, Beyza Mina
  • Özyıldırım, Süheyla

Abstract

Given that commodities play a significant role in the sustainability of economies, we investigate the role of commodity dependence in the economic fundamentals through sovereign CDS spreads. We employ 17 commodities and 16 emerging countries in our analysis. Results show commodities spill information over emerging market CDS spreads and the most influential commodity is copper. Hence, we check for the role of copper and risk measures of copper in CDS spreads and we see that the variance of copper is significant in explaining CDS spreads, however when local and global factors are included in the model, the significance vanishes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ordu-Akkaya, Beyza Mina & Özyıldırım, Süheyla, 2025. "Commodity dependence: Providing information on emerging market CDS spreads when economic indicators are absent," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:67:y:2025:i:c:s1566014125000482
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101299
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    Keywords

    Sovereign CDS; Commodity dependence; Emerging markets; Economic indicators; Copper;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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