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Oil prices and sovereign credit risk of oil producing countries: an empirical investigation

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  • Christoph Wegener
  • Tobias Basse
  • Frederik Kunze
  • Hans-Jörg von Mettenheim

Abstract

The low oil price recently has caused fears about the sustainability of public finances in some oil producing countries. We examine the relationship between oil prices and sovereign credit risk examining the CDS market. Analysing data from nine countries (Brazil, Malaysia, Norway, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, the United States of America and Venezuela) we have estimated bivariate VAR-GARCH-in-mean models. The results of our empirical investigations generally speaking do suggest that positive oil price shocks lead to lower sovereign CDS spreads. Thus, our findings support the hypothesis that higher oil prices improve the fiscal stability of oil producing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Wegener & Tobias Basse & Frederik Kunze & Hans-Jörg von Mettenheim, 2016. "Oil prices and sovereign credit risk of oil producing countries: an empirical investigation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1961-1968, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:16:y:2016:i:12:p:1961-1968
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2016.1211801
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    5. Jiang, Yong & Liu, Cenjie & Xie, Rui, 2021. "Oil price shocks and credit spread: Structural effect and dynamic spillover," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Huang, Shiangtsz & Lin, Tzu-Yu, 2022. "How do oil prices affect emerging market sovereign bond spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2023. "Systemwide directional connectedness from Crude Oil to sovereign credit risk," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
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    9. Brahim Gaies, 2021. "Curse or blessing: how do oil price fluctuations influence financial development in low- and middle-income net oil-exporting countries?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 751-763.
    10. Hualing Lin & Qiubi Sun, 2020. "Crude Oil Prices Forecasting: An Approach of Using CEEMDAN-Based Multi-Layer Gated Recurrent Unit Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-21, March.
    11. Ehouman, Yao Axel, 2021. "Dependence structure between oil price volatility and sovereign credit risk of oil exporters: Evidence using a copula approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 76-97.
    12. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2022. "Linkage dynamics of sovereign credit risk and financial markets: A bibliometric analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    13. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    14. Sabkha, Saker & de Peretti, Christian & Hmaied, Dorra, 2019. "Nonlinearities in the oil effects on the sovereign credit risk: A self-exciting threshold autoregression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-133.
    15. Li, Haiping & Semeyutin, Artur & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Gozgor, Giray, 2020. "The relationship between oil and financial markets in emerging economies: The significant role of Kazakhstan as the oil exporting country," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    16. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2021. "Dependence structure between oil price volatility and sovereign credit risk of oil exporters : Evidence using a Copula Approach," Post-Print hal-03348410, HAL.
    17. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2020. "Dependence structure between oil price volatility and sovereign credit risk of oil exporters: Evidence using a Copula Approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-31, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    18. Cheuathonghua, Massaporn & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina & Wongkantarakorn, Jutamas, 2022. "Extreme risk spillovers from commodity indexes to sovereign CDS spreads of commodity dependent countries: A VAR quantile analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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