Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries
This paper empirically investigates the role that oil prices play in determining fiscal policy in oil-exporting countries. We derive and estimate a fiscal policy equation that links government spending not only to oil price shocks, but also to oil price volatility and the skewness of oil price changes. We find that in the long run, higher oil prices induce larger government size. In the short run, however, government expenditures rise less than proportionately to the increase in oil revenues, reflecting increasing prudence in fiscal policy in oil producing countries. This result is robust to using a variety of specifications of the oil price shock, and to using different sample periods.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pesaran, M.H., 2003.
"A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
- Christopher D Carroll & Miles S Kimball, 2001.
"Liquidity Constraints and Precautionary Saving,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
455, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Javier J. Pérez & Paul Hiebert, 2002.
"Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models,"
Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces
E2002/06, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Perez, Javier J. & Hiebert, Paul, 2004. "Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1073-1089, December.
- Pérez, Javier J. & Hiebert, Paul, 2002. "Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 0156, European Central Bank.
- Carroll, Christopher D & Kimball, Miles S, 1996.
"On the Concavity of the Consumption Function,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 981-92, July.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Miles S. Kimball, 1995. "On the concavity of the consumption function," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christopher D. Carroll & Miles S. Kimball, 1995. "On the Concavity of the Consumption Function," Macroeconomics 9503003, EconWPA.
- Kareem Ismail & Rabah Arezki, 2010. "Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease," IMF Working Papers 10/94, International Monetary Fund.
- Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995.
"Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline,"
95-06, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Fixed versus flexible exchange rates: Which provides more fiscal discipline?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 399-436, April.
- Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1995. "Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline?," NBER Working Papers 5108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
- Mauricio Villafuerte & Rolando Ossowski & Theo Thomas & Paulo A. Medas, 2008. "Managing the Oil Revenue Boom: The Role of Fiscal Institutions," IMF Occasional Papers 260, International Monetary Fund.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Anamaria Pieschacon, 2008. "Implementable Fiscal Rules for an Oil-Exporting Small Open Economy Facing Depletion," OxCarre Working Papers 019, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
- Westerlund, Joakim, 2005.
"Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data,"
2005:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995.
"Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Steigum, E. & Thogersen, O., 1992.
"Petroleum Wealth, Debt Policy and Intergenerational Welfare: The Case of Norway,"
09-92, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
- Steigum, Erling Jr. & Thogersen, Oystein, 1995. "Petroleum wealth, debt policy, and intergenerational welfare: The case of Norway," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 427-442, August.
- Kia, Amir, 2008. "Fiscal sustainability in emerging countries: Evidence from Iran and Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 957-972.
- International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle," IMF Working Papers 10/28, International Monetary Fund.
- Bollino, Carlo Andrea, 2007. "Oil prices and the U.S. trade deficit," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 729-738.
- Chemingui, Mohamed Abdelbasset & Roe, Terry, 2008. "Petroleum revenues in Gulf Cooperation Council, countries and their labor market paradox," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 491-503.
- Hamilton, James D., 2003.
"What is an oil shock?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
- Kamilya Tazhibayeva & Aasim M. Husain & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/253, International Monetary Fund.
- Jan-Peter Olters & Daniel Leigh, 2006. "Natural-Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy: Lessons From Gabon," IMF Working Papers 06/193, International Monetary Fund.
- Nigel Andrew Chalk, 1998. "Fiscal Sustainability with Non-Renewable Resources," IMF Working Papers 98/26, International Monetary Fund.
- Eduardo M.R.A. Engel & Rodrigo Valdés, 2000. "Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 78, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
- Torfinn Harding & Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2009. "Is Norway's Bird-in-Hand Stabilization Fund Prudent Enough? Fiscal Reactions to Hydrocarbon Windfalls and Graying Populations," CESifo Working Paper Series 2830, CESifo Group Munich.
- Paulo A. Medas & Daria Zakharova, 2009. "A Primeron Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/56, International Monetary Fund.
- Qing Wang & Ugo Fasano-Filho, 2002. "Testing the Relationship Between Government Spending and Revenue: Evidence From GCC Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/201, International Monetary Fund.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Rodrigo O. ValdÃ©s & Eduardo Engel, 2000. "Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 00/118, International Monetary Fund.
- Sheila Bassett & Claire Liuksila & Alejandro GarcÃa, 1994. "Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 94/137, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:34:y:2012:i:5:p:605-620. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.