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Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries

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  • El Anshasy, Amany A.
  • Bradley, Michael D.

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the role that oil prices play in determining fiscal policy in oil-exporting countries. We derive and estimate a fiscal policy equation that links government spending not only to oil price shocks, but also to oil price volatility and the skewness of oil price changes. We find that in the long run, higher oil prices induce larger government size. In the short run, however, government expenditures rise less than proportionately to the increase in oil revenues, reflecting increasing prudence in fiscal policy in oil producing countries. This result is robust to using a variety of specifications of the oil price shock, and to using different sample periods.

Suggested Citation

  • El Anshasy, Amany A. & Bradley, Michael D., 2012. "Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 605-620.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:34:y:2012:i:5:p:605-620 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2011.08.021
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    Cited by:

    1. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2012. "Can oil-led growth and structural change go hand in hand in Ghana? A multi-sector intertemporal general equilibrium assessment," Kiel Working Papers 1784, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2017. "Oil price shocks and policy uncertainty: New evidence on the effects of US and non-US oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, pages 536-546.
    3. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 314-319.
    4. Allegret, Jean Pierre & Benkhodja, Mohamed Tahar, 2015. "External shocks and monetary policy in an oil exporting economy (Algeria)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 652-667.
    5. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: What can be learned from time-varying specifications?," Post-Print hal-01411817, HAL.
    6. El Anshasy, Amany A. & Katsaiti, Marina-Selini, 2013. "Natural resources and fiscal performance: Does good governance matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 285-298.
    7. Nusair, Salah A., 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on the economies of the Gulf Co-operation Council countries: Nonlinear analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 256-267.
    8. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
    9. Solaymani, Saeed & Kari, Fatimah, 2013. "Environmental and economic effects of high petroleum prices on transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 435-441.
    10. Mandal, Kumarjit & Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Bhoi, Binod B., 2012. "Is the oil price pass-through in India any different?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 832-848.
    11. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp166, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    12. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2013. "A wavelet decomposition approach to crude oil price and exchange rate dependence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-57.
    13. Hend Al-Sheikh & S. Nuri Erbas, 2012. "The Oil Curse and Labor Markets: The Case of Saudi Arabia," Working Papers 697, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    14. Zhu, Lei & Zhang, ZhongXiang & Fan, Ying, 2015. "Overseas oil investment projects under uncertainty: How to make informed decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 742-762.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Fiscal policy; GMM; PMG;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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