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Housing wealth effect in emerging economies

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  • Ciarlone, Alessio

Abstract

In this paper I estimate the impact of changes in real and financial wealth on private consumption for a panel of 17 emerging economies from Asia and Central and Eastern Europe. Households' consumption, income and the two measures of real and financial wealth – proxied by house and stock market prices – are found to be difference-stationary and co-integrated; by means of recent econometric techniques for heterogeneous panels, i.e. the pooled mean group estimator, inference is drawn about the long- and short-run relationships between the variables of interest. The main result of the analysis shows that both real and financial wealth positively affect households' consumption in the long-run, with the elasticity of housing wealth being larger than that of stock market wealth. Moreover, there is also a significant short-run adjustment from income, stock prices and house prices on consumption, i.e. consumption adjusts to its long-run relationship with lags. When the model is run for the two groups of countries separately, the long-run impact of an increase (decrease) in house prices is generally higher in Central and Eastern European economies with respect to Asian ones, which make them more vulnerable to further adverse housing market developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciarlone, Alessio, 2011. "Housing wealth effect in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-417.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:12:y:2011:i:4:p:399-417 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2011.06.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos De Resende & Claudia Godbout & René Lalonde & Eric Morin & Nikita Perevalov, 2012. "On the Adjustment of the Global Economy," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2012(Spring), pages 1-15.
    2. Anita Ceh Casni, 2017. "Importance of housing wealth effect in selected European countries: evidence from panel VAR model," ERES eres2017_138, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    3. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 223(1), pages 39-48, February.
    4. Ramiz Rahmanov, 2013. "Stock Market Wealth Effects in Emerging Economies of Eastern Europe: Evidence from Russia and Ukraine," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 5(1).
    5. Alessio Ciarlone, 2015. "House price cycles in emerging economies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 17-52, March.
    6. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Manoel Bittencourt, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Panel VARs," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 1133-1154, November.
    7. José Fuinhas & António Marques & Alcino Couto, 2015. "Oil rents and economic growth in oil producing countries: evidence from a macro panel," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 257-279, November.
    8. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Čeh Časni, Anita & Vizek, Maruška, 2014. "The effect of housing and stock market wealth on consumption in emerging and developed countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 433-450.
    9. Tomas Vlcek & Martin Jirusek & James Henderson, 2015. "Risk Assessment in Construction Process in Nuclear Sector within the Central and Eastern Europe," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 482-493.
    10. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2017. "Wealth Effects and Macroeconomic Dynamics – Evidence from Indian Economy," MPRA Paper 76836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. José Alberto Fuinhas & António Cardoso Marques & Alcino Pinto Couto, 2015. "Oil-Growth Nexus in Oil Producing Countries: Macro Panel Evidence," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 148-163.
    12. Anupam Nanda & Jia-Huey Yeh, 2016. "International Transmission Mechanisms and Contagion in Housing Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(7), pages 1005-1024, July.
    13. repec:seb:journl:v:15:y:2017:i:1:p:63-86 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; Wealth effects; Emerging markets; Panel co-integration; Pooled mean group estimator;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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