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Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure

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  • Muellbauer, John

Abstract

Many factors have contributed to the development of credit markets, easing access of households to credit. This paper considers the implications of easier credit for the influence of higher house prices on consumer expenditure. It argues that with poorly developed credit markets, the effect is likely to be negative, but becomes positive as access to housing collateral increases and down-payments for first time home buyers fall in relation to values. The implications for differences between countries and changes in consumer behaviour over time are explored. Previous studies are reviewed: the omission of credit liberalization and other controls has often biased estimates of housing ‘wealth’ effects on consumption. New empirical estimates for the UK and US suggest that there was no housing ‘wealth effect’ before credit market liberalization, but that the housing collateral effect is now significant, larger than the stock market wealth effect, and about twice as large in the US as the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Muellbauer, John, 2008. "Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure," CEPR Discussion Papers 6782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6782
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2009. "The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect," NBER Working Papers 15075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mauro Costantini & Antonio Paradiso, 2012. "Re-examining the Decline in the US Saving Rate: The Impact of Mortgage Equity Withdrawal," CESifo Working Paper Series 3897, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Declan French & Donal McKillop & Tripti Sharma, 2017. "Analysis of Housing Equity Withdrawal by its Forms," CHaRMS Working Papers 17-04, Centre for HeAlth Research at the Management School (CHaRMS).
    4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Costantini, Mauro & Paradiso, Antonio, 2013. "Re-examining the decline in the US saving rate: The impact of mortgage equity withdrawal," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 215-225.
    5. Ciarlone, Alessio, 2011. "Housing wealth effect in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-417.
    6. Danilo Liberati & Valerio Vacca, 2016. "With (more than) a little help from my bank. Loan-to-value ratios and access to mortgages in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 315, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2012. "The long run relationship between private consumption and wealth: common and idiosyncratic effects," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 11(1), pages 21-34, April.
    8. Alessio Ciarlone, 2012. "Wealth effects in emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 843, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Sheng Guo & William G. Hardin, 2017. "Financial and Housing Wealth, Expenditures and the Dividend to Ownership," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 58-96, January.
    10. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Cheng, Han-Liang & Mao, Ching-Sheng, 2012. "House price, mortgage premium, and business fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1388-1398.
    11. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2013. "An early warning system to predict speculative house price bubbles," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-26.
    12. Madis Aben & Merike Kukk & Karsten Staehr, 2012. "Housing Equity Withdrawal and Consumption Dynamics in Estonia 2002-2011," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 4(1).
    13. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "An Early Warning System to Predict the House Price Bubbles," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1142, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Edward E. Leamer, "undated". "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole y:2007:p:149-233, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer expenditure; credit channel; housing wealth;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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