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Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009

  • Karl E. Case
  • John M. Quigley
  • Robert J. Shiller

We re-examine the link between changes in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We extend a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the seventeen-year period, 1982 through 1999, to the thirty-one year period, 1978 through 2009. Using techniques reported previously, we impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regression models in levels, first differences and in error-correction form, relating per capita consumption to per capita income and wealth. We find a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption. This effect is consistently larger than the effect of stock market wealth upon consumption. This reinforces the conclusions reported in our previous analysis. In contrast to our previous analysis, however, we do find - based on data which include the recent volatility in asset markets - that the effects of declines in housing wealth in reducing consumption are at least as large as the effects of increases in housing wealth in increasing the course of household consumption.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16848.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16848.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16848
Note: EFG
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  1. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Arthur Kennickell & Annamaria Lusardi, 2004. "Disentangling the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Mode," NBER Working Papers 10888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
  4. Kennickell, Arthur B & Starr-McCluer, Martha, 1997. "Retrospective Reporting of Household Wealth: Evidence from the 1983-1989 Survey of Consumer Finances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 452-63, October.
  5. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M., 2008. "How Housing Booms Unwind: Income Effects, Wealth Effects, and Feedbacks Through Financial Markets," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt1j05j7t5, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  6. Martha Starr-McCluer, 1998. "Stock market wealth and consumer spending," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M., 2009. "How Housing Busts End: Home Prices, User Cost, and Rigidities During Down Cycles," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt6mh9m4ff, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  8. Alan Greenspan & James Kennedy, 2008. "Sources and uses of equity extracted from homes," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 120-144, spring.
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