IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/eurjhp/v8y2008i2p161-180.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Housing Booms Unwind: Income Effects, Wealth Effects, and Feedbacks through Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Karl Case
  • John Quigley

Abstract

This paper considers dynamics in the reversal of booms in the housing market. We analyze three related mechanisms which govern the propagation of changes in the housing market throughout the rest of an advanced economy: wealth effects, income effects, and effects through financial markets. As the decade-long boom in the US housing market unwinds, we anticipate that there will be small wealth effects transmitted to the economy, but there will be large income effects affecting the rest of the economy and substantial financial market effects. If the current decline in housing starts and residential investment echoes the declines of the last three housing downturns, we estimate that gross national product (GNP) growth will be reduced by close to 3 per cent. Beyond the decline in housing investment, the recent turmoil in financial markets makes a recession induced by housing market conditions increasingly likely.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl Case & John Quigley, 2008. "How Housing Booms Unwind: Income Effects, Wealth Effects, and Feedbacks through Financial Markets," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 161-180.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjhp:v:8:y:2008:i:2:p:161-180
    DOI: 10.1080/14616710802037383
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14616710802037383
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/14616710802037383?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    2. David L. Wickens & Ray R. Foster, 1937. "Non-Farm Residential Construction, 1920-1936," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wick37-1.
    3. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    4. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
    5. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
    6. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
    7. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, March.
    8. Dwight M. Jaffee & John M. Quigley, 1975. "Housing Policy, Mortgage Policy, and the Federal Housing Administration," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, pages 97-125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David L. Wickens & Ray R. Foster, 1937. "Non-Farm Residential Construction, 1920-1936," NBER Chapters, in: Non-Farm Residential Construction, 1920-1936, pages 1-20, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    11. Moses Abramovitz, 1964. "Evidences of Long Swings in Aggregate Construction Since the Civil War," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra64-1.
    12. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    13. Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2007. "The housing finance revolution," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 21-67.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leamer Edward E, 2009. "Homes and Cars: Why are the Cycles in Homes and Consumer Durables so Similar?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-66, March.
    2. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    3. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    4. Benítez-Silva, Hugo & Eren, Selçuk & Heiland, Frank & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi, 2015. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-25.
    5. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    6. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M., 2009. "How Housing Busts End: Home Prices, User Cost, and Rigidities During Down Cycles," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt6mh9m4ff, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    7. Sun, Xiaojin & Tsang, Kwok Ping, 2019. "Large price movements in housing markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-23.
    8. Crowe, Christopher & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Rabanal, Pau, 2013. "How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 300-319.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of regional housing prices in the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(22), pages 2259-2277, May.
    10. Lepinteur, Anthony & Waltl, Sofie R., 2020. "Tracking Owners' Sentiments: Subjective Home Values, Expectations and House Price Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 299, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    11. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Unit Roots and Structural Change: An Application to US House-Price Indices," Working papers 2010-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    12. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Shah, Zahra B., 2011. "An in-sample and out-of-sample empirical investigation of the nonlinearity in house prices of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 891-899, May.
    14. Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
    15. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach," Working Papers 0304, Banco de España.
    16. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "\"Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism,\" Finance and Economics Discussion Series Working Paper: a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium, Jackson ," Speech 312, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Luis Gil-Alana, 2015. "Comovement in Euro area housing prices: A fractional cointegration approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(16), pages 3123-3143, December.
    18. Fabian Lindner, 2014. "The Interaction of Mortgage Credit and Housing Prices in the US," IMK Working Paper 133-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    19. Aron, Janine & Duca, John V & Muellbauer, John & Murata, Keiko & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 7876, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-585 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. John N. Muellbauer, 2007. "Housing, credit and consumer expenditure," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267-334.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurjhp:v:8:y:2008:i:2:p:161-180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/REUJ20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/REUJ20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.