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The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in the UK: a New Perspective

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  • Vivien Burrows

Abstract

This paper proposes an alternative approach to the question of how house prices influence household consumption by focusing on their impact on mortgage equity withdrawal and household saving. Household‐level data are used to derive a measure of expected and unexpected changes in house prices; these are then incorporated into a recursive bivariate probit model of the decision to withdraw housing equity and save. The results suggest that households respond to changes in their housing wealth primarily by increasing their mortgage borrowing, rather than by decreasing their savings, although this is mainly for younger households. However, while changes in housing wealth do not have a direct impact on household saving, they do have an important indirect impact, since they increase the likelihood that the household will withdraw equity, which in turn has a negative impact on household saving.

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  • Vivien Burrows, 2018. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in the UK: a New Perspective," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(337), pages 92-123, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:85:y:2018:i:337:p:92-123
    DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12237
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    3. Muellbauer, John, 2018. "The Future of Macroeconomics," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-10, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    4. Huazhu Zheng & Jiao Qian & Guihuan Liu & Yongjiao Wu & Claudio O. Delang & Hongming He, 2023. "Housing prices and household consumption: a threshold effect model analysis in central and western China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
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    6. Brown, Sarah & Ghosh, Pulak & Pareek, Bhuvanesh & Taylor, Karl, 2021. "The protective role of saving: Bayesian analysis of British panel data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 57-72.

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