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How large are housing and financial wealth effects? A new approach

  • Carroll, Christopher D.
  • Otsuka, Misuzu
  • Slacalek, Jiri

This paper presents a simple new method for measuring `wealth effects' on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the stickiness of consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption `habits') to distinguish between immediate and eventual wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next-quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final eventual effect around 9 cents, substantially larger than the effect of shocks to financial wealth. We argue that our method is preferable to cointegration-based approaches, because neither theory nor evidence supports faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector. JEL Classification: E21, E32, C22

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1283.

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Date of creation: Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101283
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  8. Andreas Lehnert, 2004. "Housing, consumption, and credit constraints," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Janine Aron & Ant & Aron, Janine & Murphy, Anthony, 2007. "Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption," ERES eres2007_257, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  10. Slacalek Jiri, 2009. "What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, October.
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  18. Lise Pichette, 2004. "Are Wealth Effects Important for Canada," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2004(Spring), pages 29-35.
  19. Morris A. Davis & Michael G. Palumbo, 2001. "A primer on the economics and time series econometrics of wealth effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Adam Szeidl & Raj Chetty, 2005. "Consumption Commitments: Neoclassical Foundations for Habit Formation," 2005 Meeting Papers 122, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 139-158.
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  23. Bostic, Raphael & Gabriel, Stuart & Painter, Gary, 2009. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumption: New evidence from micro data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 79-89, January.
  24. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2003. "Disaggregate Wealth and Aggregate Consumption: an Investigation of Empirical Relationships for the G7," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(2), pages 197-220, 05.
  25. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & Simon Price & Andrew Blake, 2003. "The dynamics of consumers' expenditure: the UK consumption ECM redux," Bank of England working papers 204, Bank of England.
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