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Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics

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  • Christopher D. Carroll

    () (Department of Economics The Johns Hopkins University)

  • Johns Hopkins University

Abstract

This paper argues that a model in which consumers have accurate knowledge of their own idiosyncratic circumstances but `sticky expectations' about the macroeconomy can reconcile conflicting evidence about consumption dynamics from micro and macro data. Sluggish aggregate spending growth, which has often been interpreted as reflecting habits, emerges here as a consequence of a modest degree of macroeconomic inattention, whose utility cost is calculated to be very small. The implications of the model are in close agreement with a simple empirical exercise designed to reproduce the key facts about the excess smoothness of aggregate consumption

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher D. Carroll & Johns Hopkins University, 2006. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 21, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shibata, Akihisa & Shintani, Mototsugu & Tsuruga, Takayuki, 2019. "Current account dynamics under information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 153-176.
    2. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2014. "Robust control, informational frictions, and international consumption correlations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-27.
    3. Christopher D. Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer, 2011. "International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1135-1145, November.
    4. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," NBER Working Papers 12746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Guerrieri, Cinzia & Mendicino, Caterina, 2018. "Wealth effects in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2157, European Central Bank.
    6. George-Marios Angeletos & Zhen Huo, 2018. "Myopia and Anchoring," NBER Working Papers 24545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Libich, Jan & Stehlík, Petr, 2010. "Incorporating rigidity and commitment in the timing structure of macroeconomic games," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 767-781, May.
    8. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "International Wealth Effects," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 596, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Xavier Gabaix, 2017. "Behavioral Inattention," NBER Working Papers 24096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Faria, João Ricardo & Wang, Le & Wu, Zhongmin, 2012. "Debts on debts," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 203-219.
      • Joao Ricardo Faria & Le Wang & Zhongmin Wu, 2009. "Debts on debts," Working Papers 2009/7, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
    11. posada, 2019. "Colombian Economic Growth, Investment and Saving: From 1954 to 2019 and Beyond," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 017389, Universidad EAFIT.
    12. Li-gang Liu & Laurent Pauwels & Andrew Tsang, 2007. "How Large is the Wealth Effect on Hong Kong¡¦s Consumption? Evidence from a Habit Formation Model of Consumption," Working Papers 0720, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    13. Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2018. "How do expectations about the macroeconomy affect personal expectations and behavior?," IMFS Working Paper Series 128, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    14. Zorn, Peter, 2016. "Investment under Rational Inattention: Evidence from US Sectoral Data," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Christian Dreger & Jiri Slacalek, 2007. "Wie stark wird der Konsum vom Vermögen bestimmt?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 77-84.
    16. Libich Jan, 2011. "Inflation Nutters? Modelling the Flexibility of Inflation Targeting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-36, June.
    17. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2018. "How Do Expectations About the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7154, CESifo Group Munich.
    18. repec:zbw:espost:200502 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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