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Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher D. Carroll

    () (Department of Economics The Johns Hopkins University)

  • Johns Hopkins University

Abstract

This paper argues that a model in which consumers have accurate knowledge of their own idiosyncratic circumstances but `sticky expectations' about the macroeconomy can reconcile conflicting evidence about consumption dynamics from micro and macro data. Sluggish aggregate spending growth, which has often been interpreted as reflecting habits, emerges here as a consequence of a modest degree of macroeconomic inattention, whose utility cost is calculated to be very small. The implications of the model are in close agreement with a simple empirical exercise designed to reproduce the key facts about the excess smoothness of aggregate consumption

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher D. Carroll & Johns Hopkins University, 2006. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 21, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:eee:eecrev:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:142-167 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    3. Havranek, Tomas & Rusnak, Marek & Sokolova, Anna, 2017. "Habit formation in consumption: A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 142-167.
    4. Xavier Gabaix, 2014. "A Sparsity-Based Model of Bounded Rationality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(4), pages 1661-1710.
    5. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    6. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters,in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Edge, Rochelle M. & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2007. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2421-2438, November.
    8. Gruber, Joseph W., 2004. "A present value test of habits and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1495-1507, October.
    9. Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher D. Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer, 2011. "International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1135-1145, November.
    2. Libich, Jan & Stehlík, Petr, 2010. "Incorporating rigidity and commitment in the timing structure of macroeconomic games," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 767-781, May.
    3. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2014. "Robust control, informational frictions, and international consumption correlations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-27.
    4. Libich Jan, 2011. "Inflation Nutters? Modelling the Flexibility of Inflation Targeting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-36, June.
    5. Li-gang Liu & Laurent Pauwels & Andrew Tsang, 2007. "How Large is the Wealth Effect on Hong Kong¡¦s Consumption? Evidence from a Habit Formation Model of Consumption," Working Papers 0720, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    6. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," NBER Working Papers 12746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "International Wealth Effects," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 596, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Faria, João Ricardo & Wang, Le & Wu, Zhongmin, 2012. "Debts on debts," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 203-219.
      • Joao Ricardo Faria & Le Wang & Zhongmin Wu, 2009. "Debts on debts," Working Papers 2009/7, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
    9. Christian Dreger & Jiri Slacalek, 2007. "Wie stark wird der Konsum vom Vermögen bestimmt?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 77-84.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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