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Sticky expectations and consumption dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Carroll, Christopher D.
  • Crawley, Edmund
  • Slacalek, Jiri
  • Tokuoka, Kiichi
  • White, Matthew N.

Abstract

Macroeconomic models often invoke consumption "habits" to explain the substantial persistence of macroeconomic consumption growth. to explain the substantial But a large literature has found no evidence of habits in the micro-economic datasets that measure the behavior of individual households. We show that the apparent conflict can be explained by a model in which consumers have accurate knowledge of their personal circumstances but `sticky expectations' about the macro-economy. In our model, the persistence of aggregate consumption growth reflects consumers' imperfect attention to aggregate shocks. Our proposed degree of (macro) inattention has negligible utility costs, because aggregate shocks constitute only a tiny proportion of the uncertainty that consumers face. JEL Classification: D83, D84, E21, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Carroll, Christopher D. & Crawley, Edmund & Slacalek, Jiri & Tokuoka, Kiichi & White, Matthew N., 2018. "Sticky expectations and consumption dynamics," Working Paper Series 2152, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20182152
    Note: 1111765
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    Cited by:

    1. Shibata, Akihisa & Shintani, Mototsugu & Tsuruga, Takayuki, 2019. "Current account dynamics under information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 153-176.
    2. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2014. "Robust control, informational frictions, and international consumption correlations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-27.
    3. Christopher D. Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer, 2011. "International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1135-1145, November.
    4. Li-gang Liu & Laurent Pauwels & Andrew Tsang, 2007. "How Large is the Wealth Effect on Hong Kong¡¦s Consumption? Evidence from a Habit Formation Model of Consumption," Working Papers 0720, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    5. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," NBER Working Papers 12746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2018. "How do expectations about the macroeconomy affect personal expectations and behavior?," IMFS Working Paper Series 128, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    7. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "International Wealth Effects," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 425, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Guerrieri, Cinzia & Mendicino, Caterina, 2018. "Wealth effects in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2157, European Central Bank.
    9. Xavier Gabaix, 2017. "Behavioral Inattention," NBER Working Papers 24096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Zorn, Peter, 2016. "Investment under Rational Inattention: Evidence from US Sectoral Data," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. George-Marios Angeletos & Zhen Huo, 2018. "Myopia and Anchoring," NBER Working Papers 24545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Christian Dreger & Jiri Slacalek, 2007. "Wie stark wird der Konsum vom Vermögen bestimmt?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 77-84.
    13. Libich, Jan & Stehlík, Petr, 2010. "Incorporating rigidity and commitment in the timing structure of macroeconomic games," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 767-781, May.
    14. Libich Jan, 2011. "Inflation Nutters? Modelling the Flexibility of Inflation Targeting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-36, June.
    15. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2018. "How Do Expectations About the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7154, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Faria, João Ricardo & Wang, Le & Wu, Zhongmin, 2012. "Debts on debts," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 203-219.
    17. posada, 2019. "Colombian Economic Growth, Investment and Saving: From 1954 to 2019 and Beyond," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 017389, Universidad EAFIT.
    18. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2019. "Are habits in consumption important for the propagation of business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption; habits; imperfect information; inattention; sticky expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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