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Latent Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Lewis
  • Davide Melcangi
  • Laura Pilossoph

Abstract

We estimate the unconditional distribution of the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) using clustering regression applied to the 2008 economic stimulus payments. By deviating from the standard approach of estimating MPC heterogeneity using interactions with observables, we can recover the full distribution of MPCs. We find households spent between 4 and 133% of the rebate within a quarter, and individual households used rebates for different goods. While many observable characteristics correlate individually with our estimated MPCs, these relationships disappear when tested jointly, except for income and the average propensity to consume. Household observable characteristics explain only 8% of MPC variation, highlighting the role of latent heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Lewis & Davide Melcangi & Laura Pilossoph, 2024. "Latent Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume," NBER Working Papers 32523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32523
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    Cited by:

    1. Hellwig, Christian & Werquin, Nicolas, 2022. "Using Consumption Data to Derive Optimal Income and Capital Tax Rates," TSE Working Papers 22-1284, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jan 2026.
    2. Marcel Fafchamps & Aditya Shrinivas, 2022. "Risk Pooling and Precautionary Saving in Village Economies," NBER Working Papers 30128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Andre, Peter & Flynn, Joel P. & Nikolakoudis, George & Sastry, Karthik A., 2024. "Quick-fixing: Near-rationality in consumption and savings behavior," SAFE Working Paper Series 434, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2021. "Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’," NBER Working Papers 29293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bilbiie, F. O. & Galaasen, S. M. & Gurkaynak, R. S. & Maehlum, M. & Molnar, K, 2025. "Hanksson," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2516, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Jeon, Woongchan & Walsh, Kieran James, 2025. "Heterogeneity and macroeconomic state dependence in the spending response to stimulus," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    7. Miranda-Pinto, Jorge & Murphy, Daniel & Walsh, Kieran James & Young, Eric R., 2025. "A model of expenditure shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    8. repec:osf:socarx:3x4jh_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Giovanni L. Violante & Greg Kaplan, 2022. "The Marginal Propensity to Consume in Heterogeneous Agent Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 747-775, August.
    10. Czellar, Veronika & Garcia, René & Le Grand, François, 2025. "Uncovering asset market participation from household consumption and income," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    11. Fessler, Pirmin & Rapp, Severin, 2024. "The Subjective Wealth Distribution: How it Arises and Why it Matters to Inform Policy?," SocArXiv 3x4jh, Center for Open Science.
    12. Dutt, Satyajit & Radermacher, Jan W., 2023. "Age, wealth, and the MPC in Europe: A supervised machine learning approach," SAFE Working Paper Series 383, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    13. repec:cam:camjip:2507 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Thomas F. Crossley & Peter Levell & Sofía Sierra Vásquez, 2025. "What would you do with £500? (...in your own words)," IFS Working Papers W25/42, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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