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How Food Prices Shape Inflation Expectations and the Monetary Policy Response

Author

Listed:
  • Dario Bonciani
  • Riccardo Masolo

    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
    Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Sara Sarpietro

Abstract

We show that food price changes have a persistent impact on UK consumers’ inflation expectations. Over 60% of households report that their inflation perceptions are heavily influenced by food prices and display a stronger association between their inflation expectations and perceptions. In other words, households emphasising the importance of food prices tend to have more backward-looking inflation expectations. We complement this finding with a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) analysis, illustrating that food price shocks have a larger and more persistent effect on expectations compared to a “representative” inflation shock. Finally, we augment the canonical New-Keynesian model with behavioural expectations that capture our empirical findings and show that monetary policy should respond more aggressively to food price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Bonciani & Riccardo Masolo & Sara Sarpietro, 2024. "How Food Prices Shape Inflation Expectations and the Monetary Policy Response," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def135, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie1:def135
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harald Uhlig, 2004. "What moves GNP?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 636, Econometric Society.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    3. Nathanael Vellekoop & Mirko Wiederholt, 2019. "Inflation Expectations and Choices of Households," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03878694, HAL.
    4. Gert Peersman, 2022. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 85-100, March.
    5. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2024. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Boitani & Catalin Dragomirescu-Gaina & Andrea Monticini, 2025. "Managing the chaos: policy challenges in a hyperinflationary environment," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def142, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    2. Volker Hahn & Michal Marencak, 2025. "Inflation Perceptions and Monetary Policy," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2025, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    3. Elena Cottini & Lorena Popescu & Luca Salmasi & Gilberto Turati, 2025. "Poisoned Air, Shortened Lives: PM2.5 Exposure and Premature Mortality in Southern European Cities," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def143, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    4. Federico Di Pace & Giacomo Mangiante & Riccardo Masolo, 2024. "Monetary policy rules: the market’s view," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def137, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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