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How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence From the Pandemic Era in Europe

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Abstract

We document how the interaction of supply chain pressures, elevated household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power contributed to the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply chain disruptions raised inflation, particularly in manufacturing, through a cost-push channel, while also elevating inflation expectations. In turn, higher inflation expectations appear to have lowered the price elasticity of consumer demand and strengthened firms’ pricing power, enabling even firms in service sectors that were initially unaffected by supply constraints to raise markups. Through this expectations mechanism, localized inflation in sectors sensitive to supply-side shocks generalized into broad-based inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2025. "How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence From the Pandemic Era in Europe," Staff Reports 1164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:101469
    DOI: 10.59576/sr.1164
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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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