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Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation

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Abstract

We develop a multisector, open economy, New Keynesian framework to evaluate how potentially binding capacity constraints, and shocks to them, shape inflation. We show that binding constraints for domestic and foreign producers shift domestic and import price Phillips Curves up, similar to reduced-form markup shocks. Further, data on prices and quantities together identify whether constraints bind due to increased demand or reductions in capacity. Applying the model to interpret recent US data, we find that binding constraints explain half of the increase in inflation during 2021-2022. In particular, tight capacity served to amplify the impact of loose monetary policy in 2021, fueling the inflation takeoff.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Comin & Robert C. Johnson & Callum J. Jones, 2023. "Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2023-75
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2023.075
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    Cited by:

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    2. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2024. "The unemployment–inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    3. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Ko Adachi & Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Masato Okamoto & Tomohiro Sugo & Akitoshi Toyoda, 2026. "Supply Constraints and Inflation Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 26-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    5. Balleer, Almut & Noeller, Marvin, 2023. "Monetary policy in the presence of supply constraints: Evidence from German firm-level data," Ruhr Economic Papers 1060, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Ko Adachi & Naoya Kato, 2025. "Second-Round Wage-Price Effects of Raw Material Costs: An Empirical Analysis Using a DSGE Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 25-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    7. Cavoli, Tony & Khan, Isma & Wali Ullah, G.M., 2025. "Social capital and FinTech lending: international evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    8. Bardóczy, Bence & Sim, Jae & Tischbirek, Andreas, 2025. "The macroeconomic effects of excess savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. SUNAKAWA, Takeki, 2025. "Fiscal Inflation in Japan : The Role of Unfunded Fiscal Shocks," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-151, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Coenen, Günter & Mazelis, Falk & Motto, Roberto & Ristiniemi, Annukka & Smets, Frank & Warne, Anders & Wouters, Raf, 2025. "Inflation and monetary policy in medium-sized New Keynesian DSGE models," Working Paper Series 3137, European Central Bank.
    11. Elisa Guglielminetti & Alessandro Lin & Andrea Tiseno, 2025. "The many shades of uncertainty and monetary policy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 978, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Ascari, Guido & Grazzini, Jakob & Massaro, Domenico, 2024. "Great Layoff, Great Retirement and Post-pandemic Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 19068, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Gert Peersman, 2025. "Understanding Post-Pandemic Inflation Fluctuations: The Commodity Cost Channel," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 25/1123, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    14. Acharya, Viral & Crosignani, Matteo & Eisert, Tim & Eufinger, Christian, 2023. "How do supply shocks to inflation generalize? Evidence from the pandemic era in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 18530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Weber, Isabella M. & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & van ’t Klooster, Jens, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: How cost shocks facilitate price hikes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 690-712.
    16. Weber, Isabella & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & Klooster, Jens van’t, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: how cost shocks facilitate price hikes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128231, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gozgor, Giray & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Tarchella, Salma, 2025. "Impact of supply chain pressure on traditional energy and metal markets: A Wavelet-based Quantile-on-Quantile perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    18. Arisa Chantaraboontha, 2026. "Revisiting Thailand’s Phillips Curves: A Granular Panel Data Approach," ISER Discussion Paper 1303, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.

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    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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