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A Fiscal Theory of Persistent Inflation

Author

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  • Francesco Bianchi
  • Renato Faccini
  • Leonardo Melosi

Abstract

We develop a new class of general-equilibrium models with partially unfunded debt to propose a fiscal theory of persistent inflation. In response to business cycle shocks, the monetary authority controls inflation and the fiscal authority stabilizes debt. However, the central bank accommodates unfunded fiscal shocks, causing persistent movements in inflation, output, and real interest rates. In an estimated quantitative model, fiscal inflation accounts for the bulk of inflation dynamics. In the aftermath of the pandemic, unfunded fiscal shocks sustain the recovery but also cause a persistent increase in inflation. The model is able to predict the inflationary effects of the American Rescue Plan Act fiscal stimulus out of sample and with real-time data.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2023. "A Fiscal Theory of Persistent Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(4), pages 2127-2179.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:138:y:2023:i:4:p:2127-2179.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qjad027
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Galo Nuño Barrau & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by falling stars: monetary policy with fiscally driven natural rates," BIS Working Papers 1172, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Carlos Esteban Posada, 2023. "Inflation targeting strategy and its credibility," Papers 2301.11207, arXiv.org.
    3. Jiang, Shifu, 2024. "The effect of monetary policies on inflation: A fiscal perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Hänsel, Matthias, 2024. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Government Debt and Inflation," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302403, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Jonathon Hazell, 2024. "Comment on "The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ascari, Guido & Grazzini, Jakob & Massaro, Domenico, 2024. "Great Layoff, Great Retirement and Post-pandemic Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 19068, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Carlos Goncalves & Zoltan Jakab & Jesper Lindé, 2023. "Can Fiscal Consolidation help Central Banks Fight Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 2023/260, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Max Breitenlechner & Martin Geiger & Mathias Klein, 2024. "The Fiscal Channel of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2024-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    9. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut & Trienens, Lasse, 2024. "Interest Rates, Convenience Yields and Inflation Expectations: Drivers of US Dollar Exchange Rates," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302351, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2024.
    10. Matthias Hansel, 2024. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Government Debt and Inflation," Papers 2403.00471, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    11. Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo & Claudia Udroiu, 2024. "Fiscal stimuli: Monetary versus Fiscal Financing," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS105, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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