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Monetary Policy and the Great COVID-19 Price Level Shock

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Abstract

We employ a small-scale dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the surge in inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic. A calibrated version of the model is used to assess U.S. monetary and fiscal policy over the 2020–2024 period and to estimate the economic and welfare consequences of alternative policy scenarios. The analysis suggests that the large fiscal transfers of 2020–2021 were broadly welfare-improving, albeit larger than necessary. Given the fiscal stance in place, optimal monetary policy would not have generated a materially different price level dynamic. While monetary policy could, in theory, have prevented the inflation surge through coordinated fiscal adjustment, this would have required a permanently higher real interest rate and a prolonged recession. The model estimates that observed monetary policy actions helped to moderate the inflation path but had only a limited effect on the cumulative increase in the price level. A fiscal anchor on inflation expectations implies that the COVID-19 era inflation episode would likely have been mean-reverting even without aggressive monetary tightening.

Suggested Citation

  • David Andolfatto & Fernando M. Martin, 2025. "Monetary Policy and the Great COVID-19 Price Level Shock," Working Papers 2025-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 28 Jul 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:99576
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2025.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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