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Fiscal Regimes and Sustainability: Insights from Post-War Germany

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  • António Afonso
  • Joshua Jablonowski

Abstract

This paper investigates fiscal sustainability and the prevailing fiscal regime in the Federal Republic of Germany. Using annual data from 1950 to 2023, the long-term relationship between the primary balance and government debt is estimated using a single-equation error correction model (SECM). The results from this long-term analysis do not support the hypothesis of fiscal sustainability, and the SECM proves inconclusive in identifying a dominant fiscal regime, showing a statistically insignificant long-run coefficient and bidirectional Granger causality. Moreover, with the local projections method on quarterly data from 2002 to 2023, this impulse response analysis reveals a clear Money-Dominant (MD) regime. A discretionary positive shock to the primary balance leads to a significant a decrease in real government debt, a result consistent with the MD regime. These findings suggest that while Germany’s long-run fiscal framework is ambiguous, its policy dynamics in the 21st century have been characterised as sustainable fiscal practices.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Joshua Jablonowski, 2025. "Fiscal Regimes and Sustainability: Insights from Post-War Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 12111, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12111
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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