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Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy and Public Debt: Historical and Time Series Evidence for the Period 1850-2010

Author

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  • Heiko T. Burret
  • Lars P. Feld
  • Ekkehard A. Köhler

Abstract

In the last decades, the majority of OECD countries has experienced a continuous increase in public debt. The European debt crisis has prompted a fundamental re]evaluation of public debt sustainability and the looming threat of sovereign debt default. Due to a multitude of large scale events in its past, Germany is far from being an exception: In fact, Germanyfs peacetime debt]to]GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ratio has never been higher. In this paper, we analyse the sustainability of Germanyfs public finances against the standard theoretical back]ground using a unique database, retrieved from multiple sources covering the period from 1850 to 2010. Multiple currency crises and external events offer anecdotal evidence, contradicting the historical perception of Germany as the poster child of European public finance. Given these corresponding breaks in time series, the empirical analysis is conducted for the sub]periods 1872]1913 and 1950]2010. In addition to an anecdotal his]torical analysis, we conduct formal tests on fiscal sustainability, including tests on stationarity and cointegration and the estimation of Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). While we cannot reject the hypothesis that fiscal policy was sustainable in the period before the First World War, the tests allow for a rejection of the hypothesis of fiscal sustainability for the period from 1950 to 2010. This evidence leads to the conclusion that Germanyfs public debt is in dire need of consolidation. Albeit a much needed reform, the incompleteness of the German debt brake will have to be addressed in the coming years, in order to ensure that fiscal consolidation actually takes place.

Suggested Citation

  • Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld & Ekkehard A. Köhler, 2013. "Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy and Public Debt: Historical and Time Series Evidence for the Period 1850-2010," CESifo Working Paper Series 4135, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4135
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    2. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    3. Schaltegger, Christoph A. & Feld, Lars P., 2009. "Are fiscal adjustments less successful in decentralized governments?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 115-123, March.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Deutsche Finanzen in Schieflage
      by Tobias Straumann in Never mind the markets on 2013-08-12 08:00:16

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Mayer & Gunther Schnabl, 2023. "How to escape from the debt trap: Lessons from the past," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 991-1016, April.
    2. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2019. "Government Expenditures and Revenues in Italy in a Long-run Perspective," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 361-375, June.
    3. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2017. "The Sustainability of Italian Public Debt and Deficit," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 23(1), pages 9-20, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    public debt; sustainability; time series analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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