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Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance

Author

Listed:
  • Andrade, Philippe

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

  • Gautier, Erwan

    (Banque de France - Centre de Recherche)

  • Mengus, Eric

    (HEC Paris)

  • Moench, Emanuel

    (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))

  • Schmidt, Tobias

    (Deutsche Bundesbank - Research Center)

Abstract

We study beliefs about fiscal dominance in a survey of German households. We first use a randomized controlled trial to identify how fiscal news impact individual debt-to-GDP and inflation expectations. We document that the link between debt and inflation crucially depends on individuals’ views about the fiscal space. News leading individuals to expect higher debt-to-GDP ratios make them more likely to revise upward their inflation expectations. These average effects are due to individuals who think that fiscal resources are more stretched than others. In contrast, individuals who think there is fiscal space do not associate debt with inflation. We then rationalize these results in a New Keynesian model where agents have heterogeneous beliefs about the fiscal space. We show that the heterogeneity of beliefs implies a policy tradeoff for the central bank. Agents who expect fiscal dominance in the future exert upward pressure on inflation. An active central bank may chose to partially tolerate this higher inflation due to the real costs of completely stabilizing prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrade, Philippe & Gautier, Erwan & Mengus, Eric & Moench, Emanuel & Schmidt, Tobias, 2025. "Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance," HEC Research Papers Series 1535, HEC Paris.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:1535
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.5097443
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    Cited by:

    1. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Casiraghi, Marco & Gelos, Gaston & Harrison, Olamide & Kamber, Gunes, 2024. "Is high debt Constraining monetary policy? evidence from inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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