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Idiosyncratic Risk, Government Debt and Inflation

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  • Matthias Hansel

Abstract

How does public debt matter for price stability? If it is useful for the private sector to insure idiosyncratic risk, government debt expansions can increase the natural rate of interest and create inflation. As I demonstrate using a tractable model, this holds in the presence of an active Taylor rule and does not require the absence of future fiscal consolidation. Further analysis using a full-blown 2-asset HANK model reveals the quantitative magnitude of the mechanism to crucially depend on the structure of the asset market: under standard assumptions, the effect of public debt on the natural rate is either overly strong or overly weak. Employing a parsimonious way to overcome this issue, my framework suggests relevant effects of public debt on inflation under active monetary policy: In particular, persistently elevated public debt may make it harder to go the last "mile of disinflation" unless central banks explicitly take its effect on the neutral rate into account.

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  • Matthias Hansel, 2024. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Government Debt and Inflation," Papers 2403.00471, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2403.00471
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2023. "A Fiscal Theory of Persistent Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(4), pages 2127-2179.
    2. Mary Amiti & Sebastian Heise & Fatih Karahan & Ayşegül Şahin, 2023. "Inflation Strikes Back: The Role of Import Competition and the Labor Market," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2023, volume 38, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2005. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 83-160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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