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Navigating by Falling Stars: Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates

Author

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  • Campos, Rodolfo
  • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús
  • Nuño, Galo
  • Paz, Peter

Abstract

We study a new type of monetary-fiscal interaction in a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with a fiscal block. Due to household heterogeneity, the stock of public debt affects the natural interest rate, forcing the central bank to adapt its monetary policy rule to the fiscal stance to guarantee that inflation remains at its target. There is, however, a minimum level of debt below which the steady-state inflation deviates from its target due to the zero lower bound on nominal rates. We analyze the response to a debt-financed fiscal expansion and quantify the impact of different timings in the adaptation of the monetary policy rule, as well as the performance of alternative monetary policy rules that do not require an assessment of the natural rates. We validate our findings with a series of empirical estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Campos, Rodolfo & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Nuño, Galo & Paz, Peter, 2024. "Navigating by Falling Stars: Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 18874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18874
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ekaterina Shabalina, "undated". "Progressive Taxation and Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2025-03, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2025.
    3. Challe, Edouard & Matvieiev, Mykhailo, 2024. "On natural interest rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    4. Jonathon Hazell & Stephan Hobler, 2024. "Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach," Discussion Papers 2439, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Grancini, Stefano, 2025. "Public debt, iMPCs & fiscal policy transmission," Working Paper Series 3106, European Central Bank.
    6. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    7. Marijn A Bolhuis & Jakree Koosakul & Neil Shenai, 2025. "Fiscal R-Star: Fiscal-Monetary Tensions and Implications for Policy," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2025-05, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2025.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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