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The Central Bank, the Treasury, or the Market: Which One Determines the Price Level?

Author

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  • Mengus, Eric
  • Barthélemy, Jean
  • Plantin, Guillaume

Abstract

This paper studies a model in which the price level is the outcome of dynamic strategic interactions between a fiscal authority, a monetary authority, and investors in government bonds and reserves. The “unpleasant monetarist arithmetic†whereby aggressive fiscal expansion forces the monetary authority to chicken out and inflate away public liabilities may be contained by market forces: Monetary dominance prevails if such fiscal expansion is met with a higher real interest rate on public liabilities, due for example to the crowding out of private investment opportunities. The model delivers empirical implications regarding the joint dynamics of public liabilities and price level, and policy implications regarding the management of central banks’ balance sheets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mengus, Eric & Barthélemy, Jean & Plantin, Guillaume, 2021. "The Central Bank, the Treasury, or the Market: Which One Determines the Price Level?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16679, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16679
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Andryushin, S., 2024. "Interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia in conditions of fiscally-dominant regime: Risks and prospects," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 211-219.
    3. E. Yu. Ablaev, 2025. "Approaches to Determining the Interaction Modes of Budgetary-Tax and Monetary Policy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 406-415, June.
    4. Philippe Andrade & Erwan Gautier & Eric Mengus & Emanuel Münch & Tobias Schmidt, 2025. "Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance," Working papers 986, Banque de France.
    5. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202426 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Antoine Camous & Dmitry Matveev, 2023. "The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(649), pages 1-29.
    7. Carlos Goncalves & Mauro Rodrigues & Fernando Genta, 2022. "Elusive Unpleasantness," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_16, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    8. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2025. "The economics of helicopter money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Schmidt, Sebastian, 2023. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions when price stability occasionally takes a back seat," CEPR Discussion Papers 18002, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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