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Monetary-fiscal policy interactions when price stability occasionally takes a back seat

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  • Schmidt, Sebastian

Abstract

What are the macroeconomic consequences of a government that is limited in its willingness or ability to raise primary surpluses, and a central bank that accommodates its interest-rate policy to the fiscal conditions? I address this question in a dynamic stochastic sticky-price model with endogenous shifts between an "orthodox'" and a "fiscally-dominant'" policy regime. The risk of future regime shifts has encompassing effects on equilibrium. Inflation is systematically higher than it would be if fiscal policy always adjusted its primary surplus sufficiently and monetary policy was solely concerned with price stability. This inflation bias is increasing in the real value of government debt. Regime-switching probabilities are not invariant to policy. The central bank can attenuate the risk of a shift to the fiscally-dominant regime by raising the real interest rate sufficiently moderately when inflation increases. Lower fiscal dominance risk, in turn, mitigates the inflation bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmidt, Sebastian, 2023. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions when price stability occasionally takes a back seat," CEPR Discussion Papers 18002, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18002
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Stéphane Dupraz & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2024. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability When Households are Not Ricardian," Working papers 981, Banque de France.
    3. Rosso, Biagio & Gatto, Matteo, 2024. "Dynamics and Optimal Monetary-Fiscal Policy in Fiscally Dominant Economies with Occasionally Inflexible Monetary Authorities," MPRA Paper 125094, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2025.
    4. Philippe Andrade & Erwan Gautier & Eric Mengus & Emanuel Moench, 2025. "Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance," Working Papers 25-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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