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The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination

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Abstract

What happens if the government?s willingness to stabilize a large stock of debt is waning, while the central bank is adamant about preventing a rise in inflation? The large fiscal imbalance brings about inflationary pressures, triggering a monetary tightening, further debt accumulation, and additional inflationary pressure. Thus, the economy will go through a spiral of higher inflation, output contraction, and further debt accumulation. A coordinated commitment to inflate away the portion of debt resulting from a large recession leads to better macroeconomic outcomes by separating the issue of long-run fiscal sustainability from the need for short-run fiscal stabilization. This strategy can also be used to rule out episodes in which the central bank becomes constrained by the zero lower bound.

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  • Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination," Working Paper Series WP-2017-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2017-19
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    6. Łyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz-Łyziak, Joanna, 2020. "Does fiscal stance affect inflation expectations? Evidence for European economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 296-310.
    7. Pontus Braunerhjelm, 2022. "Rethinking stabilization policies; Including supply-side measures and entrepreneurial processes," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 963-983, February.
    8. Busato, Francesco & Albanese, Marina & Varlese, Monica, 2022. "Inflation-based fiscal consolidation: a DSGE approach," MPRA Paper 113838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Donato Masciandaro, 2020. "Ecb Helicopter Money: Economic And Political Economy Arithmetics," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20138, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    10. Leeper, Eric M. & Zhou, Xuan, 2021. "Inflation’s role in optimal monetary-fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-18.
    11. Chang, Yoosoon & Kwak, Boreum & Qiu, Shi, 2021. "U.S. monetary and fiscal policy regime changes and their interactions," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. David Andolfatto, 2021. "Is It Time for Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(3), pages 315-332, July.
    13. D. Masciandaro, 2019. "What Bird Is That? Central Banking And Monetary Policy In The Last Forty Years," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19127, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    14. Fritz Breuss, 2017. "The United States-Euro Area Growth Gap Puzzle," WIFO Working Papers 541, WIFO.
    15. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2019. "Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    16. Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco & Matthieu Tarbé, 2021. "Monetary-Fiscal Crosswinds in the European Monetary Union," BIS Working Papers 940, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Beqiraj, Elton & Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Fiscal stance and the sovereign risk pass-through," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    18. Zavadska, Diana, 2018. "Innovative Environment In Ukraine: Formation And Evaluation Of Development In The Conditions Of The Balanced Economic Growth," EUREKA: Social and Humanities, Scientific Route OÜ, issue 2, pages 19-29.
    19. Baumann, Ursel & Lodge, David & Miescu, Mirela S., 2019. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2248, European Central Bank.
    20. Atanas Pekanov, 2019. "Policy Brief: Past and Present of EMU Reform. Reforming the Euro Area – The Road Not (Yet) Taken," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61850, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary and fiscal policies; coordination; emergency budget; Markov-switching models; liquidity traps;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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