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Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle

Listed author(s):
  • Martin Schneider

    (Stanford University)

  • Cosmin Ilut

    (Duke University)

  • Francesco Bianchi

    (Duke University)

This paper studies a DSGE model with endogenous financial asset supply and ambiguity averse investors. An increase in uncertainty about financial conditions leads firms to substitute away from debt and reduce shareholder payout in bad times when measured risk premia are high. Regime shifts in volatility generate large low frequency movements in asset prices due to uncertainty premia that are disconnected from the business cycle.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2013 Meeting Papers with number 202.

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Date of creation: 2013
Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:202
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA

Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/
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  1. François Gourio, 2013. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 1-34, July.
  2. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2011. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 774, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2015.
  3. Marco Cagetti & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams, 2002. "Robustness and Pricing with Uncertain Growth," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 363-404, March.
  4. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
  5. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
  6. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
  7. Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2013. "Ambiguity in asset pricing and portfolio choice: a review of the literature," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 183-217, February.
  8. Troy Davig & Taeyoung Doh, 2014. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 862-875, December.
  9. Martin M. Andreasen & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2013. "The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications," CREATES Research Papers 2013-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  10. Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "Learning and Monetary Policy Shifts," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 392-419, April.
  11. Tim Landvoigt & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Vadim Elenev, 2016. "A Macroeconomic Model with Financially Constrained Producers and Intermediaries," 2016 Meeting Papers 1224, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
  13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  14. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  15. Bidder, R.M. & Smith, M.E., 2012. "Robust animal spirits," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 738-750.
  16. John R. Graham & Mark T. Leary, 2011. "A Review of Empirical Capital Structure Research and Directions for the Future," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 309-345, December.
  17. Sbuelz, Alessandro & Trojani, Fabio, 2008. "Asset prices with locally constrained-entropy recursive multiple-priors utility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3695-3717, November.
  18. Dario Caldara & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Wen Yao, 2012. "Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences and Stochastic Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 188-206, April.
  19. Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Hening Liu, 2014. "Ambiguity Aversion and Asset Prices in Production Economies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(10), pages 3060-3097.
  20. repec:eee:macchp:v2-527 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
  22. Judd, Kenneth L. & Guu, Sy-Ming, 1997. "Asymptotic methods for aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1025-1042, June.
  23. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  24. M. Max Croce & Howard Kung & Thien T. Nguyen & Lukas Schmid, 2012. "Fiscal Policies and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2635-2672.
  25. Kliem, Martin & Uhlig, Harald, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model with asset prices," Discussion Papers 37/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  26. Markus Leippold & Fabio Trojani & Paolo Vanini, 2008. "Learning and Asset Prices Under Ambiguous Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2565-2597, November.
  27. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  28. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
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