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Price-level determinacy, lower bounds on the nominal interest rate, and liquidity traps

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  • Ragna Alstadheim
  • Dale W. Henderson

Abstract

We consider monetary-policy rules with inflation-rate targets and interest-rate or money-growth instruments using a flexible-price, perfect-foresight model. There is always a locally-unique target equilibrium. There may also be below-target equilibria (BTE) with inflation always below target and constant, asymptotically approaching or eventually reaching a below-target value, or oscillating. Liquidity traps are neither necessary nor sufficient for BTE which can arise if monetary policy keeps the interest rate above a lower bound. We construct monetary rules that preclude BTE when fiscal policy does not. Plausible fiscal policies preclude BTE for any monetary policy; those policies exclude surpluses and, possibly, balanced budgets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ragna Alstadheim & Dale W. Henderson, 2004. "Price-level determinacy, lower bounds on the nominal interest rate, and liquidity traps," International Finance Discussion Papers 795, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:795
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    Cited by:

    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 2002. "Consistent Expectations, Rational Expectations, Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies, and Least-Squares Learnability," NBER Working Papers 9218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sugo, Tomohiro & Ueda, Kozo, 2008. "Eliminating a deflationary trap through superinertial interest rate rules," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 119-122, July.
    3. Tony Yates, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Zero Bound to Interest Rates: A Review1," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 427-481, July.
    4. Philip Coyle & Taisuke Nakata, 2019. "Optimal Inflation Target with Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    6. Ragna Alstadheim & Øistein Røisland, 2017. "When Preferences for a Stable Interest Rate Become Self‐Defeating," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 393-415, March.
    7. Philip Coyle & Taisuke Nakata, 2020. "Optimal Inflation Target with Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," CARF F-Series CARF-F-485, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    8. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
    9. Richter Alexander W. & Throckmorton Nathaniel A., 2015. "The zero lower bound: frequency, duration, and numerical convergence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, January.
    10. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Mr. Marco Airaudo, 2012. "Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 2012/121, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
    12. Schmidt, Sebastian, 2016. "Lack of confidence, the zero lower bound, and the virtue of fiscal rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 36-53.
    13. Jean-Pascal Bénassy & Michel Guillard, 2005. "The Taylor Principle and Global Determinacy in a Non-Ricardian World," Documents de recherche 05-26, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    14. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Mestre, R. & Sousa, J., 2015. "Global policy at the zero lower bound in a large-scale DSGE model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 134-153.
    15. Kevin J. Lansing, 2017. "Endogenous Regime Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 2017-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Rym Aloui & Michel Guillard, 2009. "A Simple “Public Debt-Deflation” Theory: Leeper revisited," Documents de recherche 09-11, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    17. Alstadheim, Ragna, 2016. "The zero lower bound on the interest rate and a Neoclassical Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 116-130.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Prices; Monetary policy; Econometric models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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