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A Simple “Public Debt-Deflation” Theory: Leeper revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Rym Aloui

    (EPEE, Université d’Evry-Val-d’Essonne)

  • Michel Guillard

    (EPEE, Université d’Evry-Val-d’Essonne)

Abstract

In this paper, we study the interaction between monetary and fiscal poli- cies from the perspective of global analysis in a non-Ricardian economy with capital and a zero bound on the nominal interest rate. We demonstrate in this framework the possible coexistence of four steady state equilibria, each having the properties of one of the equilibria described by Leeper (1991). But whereas in Leeper (1991), an equilibrium corresponds to a particular configuration of fiscal and monetary policy -active or passive- , we obtain these four equi- libria for a unique set of the policy parameter space. We show in particular that a liquidity trap -deflationary- equilibrium, which is also characterized by a high public debt-to-GDP ratio, a low capital stock and a low consumption level, owns the usually required properties for local determinacy, as well as the more traditional equilibrium targeted by the monetary and fiscal authorities. The model is calibrated based on European annual data and simulated in order to qualitatively asses the implications of a self-fulfilling expectation shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Rym Aloui & Michel Guillard, 2009. "A Simple “Public Debt-Deflation” Theory: Leeper revisited," Documents de recherche 09-11, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    • Handle: RePEc:eve:wpaper:09-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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