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A Simple “Public Debt-Deflation” Theory: Leeper revisited

  • Rym Aloui


    (EPEE, Université d’Evry-Val-d’Essonne)

  • Michel Guillard


    (EPEE, Université d’Evry-Val-d’Essonne)

In this paper, we study the interaction between monetary and fiscal poli- cies from the perspective of global analysis in a non-Ricardian economy with capital and a zero bound on the nominal interest rate. We demonstrate in this framework the possible coexistence of four steady state equilibria, each having the properties of one of the equilibria described by Leeper (1991). But whereas in Leeper (1991), an equilibrium corresponds to a particular configuration of fiscal and monetary policy -active or passive- , we obtain these four equi- libria for a unique set of the policy parameter space. We show in particular that a liquidity trap -deflationary- equilibrium, which is also characterized by a high public debt-to-GDP ratio, a low capital stock and a low consumption level, owns the usually required properties for local determinacy, as well as the more traditional equilibrium targeted by the monetary and fiscal authorities. The model is calibrated based on European annual data and simulated in order to qualitatively asses the implications of a self-fulfilling expectation shock.

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Paper provided by Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne in its series Documents de recherche with number 09-11.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eve:wpaper:09-11
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  1. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  2. Campbell Leith & Simon Wren‐Lewis, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1477-1516, December.
  3. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1998. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Working Papers 98-37, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  4. Ragna Alstadheim & Dale W. Henderson, 2004. "Price-level determinacy, lower bounds on the nominal interest rate, and liquidity traps," International Finance Discussion Papers 795, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Jean-Pascal Benassy, 2000. "Price Level Determinacy under a Pure Interest Rate Peg," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 194-211, January.
  6. Cushing, Matthew J., 1999. "The indeterminacy of prices under interest rate pegging: The non-Ricardian case," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 131-148, August.
  7. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  8. Weil, Philippe, 1991. "Is Money Net Wealth?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(1), pages 37-53, February.
  9. Jean-Pascal Bénassy & Michel Guillard, 2005. "The Taylor Principle and Global Determinacy in a Non-Ricardian World," Documents de recherche 05-26, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
  10. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 12402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  12. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
  13. Svensson, Lars-E-O, 2001. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 277-312, February.
  14. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  15. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  16. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "Monetary policy and multiple equilibria," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Campbell Leith & Leopold von Thadden, 2006. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and non-Ricardian consumers," Working Papers 2006_6, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  18. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  19. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
  20. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 345-80.
  21. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2000. "Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C93-108, March.
  22. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Money as stock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 501-528, April.
  23. Jean-Pascal Benassy, 2005. "Interest Rate Rules, Price Determinacy and the Value of Money in a non Ricardian World," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 651-667, July.
  24. Annicchiarico, Barbara, 2007. "Government deficits, wealth effects and the price level in an optimizing euro-model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 15-28.
  25. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  26. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2006. "Fiscal policy in a monetary economy with capital and finite lifetime," Working Paper Series 0661, European Central Bank.
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