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Price-Level Determinacy, Lower Bounds on the Nominal Interest Rate, and Liquidity Traps

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  • Alstadheim Ragna

    () (Norges Bank)

  • Henderson Dale W.

    () (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

We study standard monetary-policy rules with inflation-rate targets and either interest-rate or money-supply instruments using a flexible-price, perfect-foresight model. We focus mainly on interest-rate rules, but the results for money-supply rules are analogous. A locally-unique target equilibrium always exists. There are also below-target equilibria (BTE) with inflation below target and constant or asymptotically approaching or eventually reaching a below-target value. Liquidity traps are neither necessary nor sufficient for BTE. Such equilibria can also arise if monetary policy keeps the interest rate above a lower bound. We construct monetary-policy rules that preclude BTE. All are non-monotonic and discontinuous in current inflation. Each implies a difference equation in inflation. Some of these difference equations are continuous, but others are not. They are all non-monotonic and non-differentiable at a point. We argue that Japan's difficulties in the 1990s were probably the result of a stabilization problem rather than an indeterminacy problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Alstadheim Ragna & Henderson Dale W., 2006. "Price-Level Determinacy, Lower Bounds on the Nominal Interest Rate, and Liquidity Traps," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:contributions.6:y:2006:i:1:n:12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 2002. "Consistent Expectations, Rational Expectations, Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies, and Least-Squares Learnability," NBER Working Papers 9218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sugo, Tomohiro & Ueda, Kozo, 2008. "Eliminating a deflationary trap through superinertial interest rate rules," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 119-122, July.
    3. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    4. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
    5. repec:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:2-3:p:393-415 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
    7. Lansing, Kevin J., 2017. "Endogenous Regime Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 2017-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Richter Alexander W. & Throckmorton Nathaniel A., 2015. "The zero lower bound: frequency, duration, and numerical convergence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, January.
    9. Michel GUILLARD & Rym ALOUI, "undated". "A Simple "Public Debt-Deflation" Theory: Leeper revisited," EcoMod2010 259600067, EcoMod.
    10. Jean-Pascal Bénassy & Michel Guillard, 2005. "The Taylor Principle and Global Determinacy in a Non-Ricardian World," Documents de recherche 05-26, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    11. Schmidt, Sebastian, 2016. "Lack of confidence, the zero lower bound, and the virtue of fiscal rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 36-53.
    12. Alstadheim, Ragna, 2016. "The zero lower bound on the interest rate and a Neoclassical Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 116-130.
    13. Jean-Pascal Bénassy & Michel Guillard, 2005. "The Taylor principle and global determinacy in a non Ricardian world," Working Papers halshs-00590558, HAL.
    14. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Mestre, R. & Sousa, J., 2015. "Global policy at the zero lower bound in a large-scale DSGE model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 134-153.
    15. Ragna Alstadheim & Øistein Røisland, 2017. "When Preferences for a Stable Interest Rate Become Self‐Defeating," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 393-415, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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