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Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation

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  • Evans, George W.
  • Guse, Eran
  • Honkapohja, Seppo

Abstract

We examine global economic dynamics under learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. Under normal monetary and fiscal policy, the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Large pessimistic shocks to expectations can lead to deflationary spirals with falling prices and falling output. To avoid this outcome we recommend augmenting normal policies with aggressive monetary and fiscal policy that guarantee a lower bound on inflation. In contrast, policies geared toward ensuring an output lower bound are insufficient for avoiding deflationary spirals.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6355.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6355
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Keywords: adaptive learning; fiscal policy; indeterminacy; monetary policy; zero interest rate lower bound;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
  • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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  1. Perri, F., 1999. "The Role of Fiscal Policy in Japan: a Quantitative Study," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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  11. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 1995. "Recurrent hyperinflations and learning," Economics Working Papers 244, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2001.
  12. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-11, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 06 Apr 2005.
  13. Coenen, Günter & Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero," Working Paper Series 0231, European Central Bank.
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  23. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 2001. "Convergence In Monetary Inflation Models With Heterogeneous Learning Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 1-31, February.
  24. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Research Discussion Papers 29/2002, Bank of Finland.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. "Deep Recession Calls for Healthy Dose of Fiscal Stimulation"
    by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2009-08-02 20:06:09
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