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Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument

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  • Bruce McGough
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch
  • John C. Williams

Abstract

Using a short-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument can be problematic near its zero bound constraint. An alternative strategy is to use a long-term interest rate as the policy instrument. We find when Taylor-type policy rules are used to set the long rate in a standard New Keynesian model, indeterminacy--that is, multiple rational expectations equilibria--may often result. However, a policy rule with a long rate policy instrument that responds in a "forward-looking" fashion to inflation expectations can avoid the problem of indeterminacy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce McGough & Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2004. "Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument," Working Paper Series 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2004-22
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    Cited by:

    1. Hess Chung & Jean‐Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2012. "Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 47-82, February.
    2. repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:21:p:2041-2059 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. John C. Williams, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound: Lessons from the Past Decade," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 367-375 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
    5. Woodford, Michael, 2005. "Comment on: "Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 881-887, July.
    6. YUAN, Chunming & CHEN, Ruo, 2015. "Policy transmissions, external imbalances, and their impacts: Cross-country evidence from BRICS," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-24.
    7. Adão, Bernardino & Correia, Isabel & Teles, Pedro, 2014. "Short and long interest rate targets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 95-107.
    8. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2008. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 71-92, March.
    9. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2010. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve of rational expectations: A serial correlation extension," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 13, pages 159-179, May.
    10. Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2011. "Equilibrium selection in a cashless economy with transaction frictions in the bond market," MPRA Paper 31680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bennett T. McCallum, 2011. "Should central banks raise their inflation targets? Some relevant issues," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 2Q, pages 111-131.
    12. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076 Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Central Banks Going Long," Discussion Papers 1810, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    14. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," Working Papers 2010-12, Swiss National Bank.
    15. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2011. "Heterogeneous expectations, Taylor rules and the merit of monetary policy inertia," MPRA Paper 31004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Olmo, Jose & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2015. "Changes in the transmission of monetary policy during crisis episodes: Evidence from the euro area and the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 155-166.
    17. Jones, Callum & Kulish, Mariano, 2013. "Long-term interest rates, risk premia and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2547-2561.
    18. Best, Gabriela, 2015. "A New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 96-111.
    19. Seip, Knut L. & McNown, Robert, 2013. "Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 307-325.
    20. Mishra, Sagarika & Dhole, Sandip, 2014. "Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 194-204.
    21. Anna Florio, 2013. "The Implied Consumer Euler Rate: What Role for Financial Frictions?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 59(4), pages 650-675, December.
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    Keywords

    Monetary policy ; Interest rates;

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