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Monetary Transmission at Low Inflation: Some Clues from Japan in the 1990s

Author

Listed:
  • Meltzer, Allan-H

    (Carnegie Mellon U and American Enterprise Institute)

Abstract

The paper analyzes the performance of the Japanese economy from 1985 to 1999. It compares different explanations of slow growth and prolonged recession. Using both bivariate comparisons and statistical tests, the paper concludes that the maintained growth rate fill after 1992. Also, the data suggest that the recession early in the 1990s was induced by a decline in money growth. In contrast, the recent recession was induced mainly by a fall in real exports. Failure to allow the nominal exchange rate to depreciate forced deflation and increased the costs of adjusting to reduced export demand The main policy conclusion calls on the Bank of Japan to pursue a more expansive policy to end deflation. This policy would depreciate the yen, but it would end the deflation that is costly to Japan and its neighbors.

Suggested Citation

  • Meltzer, Allan-H, 2001. "Monetary Transmission at Low Inflation: Some Clues from Japan in the 1990s," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 13-34, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:19:y:2001:i:s1:p:13-34
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    File URL: https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me19-s1-3.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    2. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2008. "Monetary factors and inflation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 343-363, September.
    3. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 131-1997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni & Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi & Olofin Sodik Adejonwo, 2019. "Output Gap, Money Growth and Interest Rate in Japan: Evidence from Wavelet Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 18(2), pages 171-184, December.
    5. Schenkelberg, Heike & Watzka, Sebastian, 2013. "Real effects of quantitative easing at the zero lower bound: Structural VAR-based evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 327-357.
    6. Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    7. Tatsuyoshi Miyakoshi, 2010. "A Welfare Cost Of The Lost Decade In Japan," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 28-43, March.
    8. Nagayasu, Jun, 2007. "Empirical analysis of the exchange rate channel in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 887-904, October.
    9. McGough, Bruce & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2005. "Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 855-879, July.
    10. Jakub Janus, 2016. "The Transmission Mechanism Of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 7-21, March.
    11. W. R. Garside, 2012. "Japan’s Great Stagnation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14624.
    12. John C. Williams, 2010. "Monetary policy in a low inflation economy with learning," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-12.
    13. Nobuyuki Oda & Kazuo Ueda, 2007. "The Effects Of The Bank Of Japan'S Zero Interest Rate Commitment And Quantitative Monetary Easing On The Yield Curve: A Macro‐Finance Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 303-328, September.
    14. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2012. "The role of inflation regime in the exchange rate pass-through to import prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 88-96.
    15. Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Киюцевская, Анна) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2018. "Features of Interest Rate Policy Under the Inflation Targeting Regime [Особенности Процентной Политики При Режиме Таргетирования Инфляции]," Working Papers 031812, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    16. Peter Kugler & Georg Rich, 2002. "Monetary Policy Under Low Interest Rates: The Experience of Switzerland in the late 1970s," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(3), pages 241-269, September.
    17. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey & Renée Fry, 2008. "Monetary Policy in Illiquid Markets: Options for a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 305-336, July.
    18. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall.
    19. Nobuyuki Oda & Kazuo Ueda, 2005. "The Effects of the Bank of Japan's Zero Interest Rate Commitment and Quantitative Monetary Easing on the Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach (subsequently published in "The Japanese Economic Review", September 2007, Vol. 58, No. 3, 303-32," CARF F-Series CARF-F-031, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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