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Likviditási csapda és deflációs spirál egy inflációs célt követő modellben - a hitelesség szerepe
[A liquidity trap and deflationary spiral in a model for pursuing an inflation target - the role of credibility]

Author

Listed:
  • Koppány, Krisztián

Abstract

A nominális kamatszint alsó határának elérése súlyos következményekkel járhat a makrogazdaság egyensúlya és stabilitása szempontjából. Ilyenkor a recesszióval és az infláció túl alacsony szintre szorításával fenyegető negatív sokkhatások a kamatpolitika hagyományos eszközeivel nem ellensúlyozhatók, s - másfajta keresletösztönző lépések híján - a gazdaság könnyen a minimális értéken állandósuló kamatszint állapotába, valamint az egyre inkább visszaeső kibocsátás és árszínvonal spiráljába kerülhet. Elméleti tanulmányunk ilyen helyzetek kialakulásának lehetőségeit vizsgálja egy egyszerű, stilizált makrogazdasági modellben. A likviditási csapda, illetve a deflációs spirál bekövetkezésének formálisan levezetett feltételei jól mutatják, hogy az inflációs cél kitűzése és a gazdaságra jellemző egyensúlyi reálkamatláb szintje, a sokkhatások jellege és nagysága, a jegybank ezekre adott kamatreakcióinak mértéke, valamint az inflációs cél hitelessége miként befolyásolják a kamatpolitika lehetőségeinek határait. A következetések párhuzamba állíthatók a likviditási csapda valószínűségére vonatkozó modellszámítások eredményeivel, valamint annak elkerülésére és az abból való kilábalásra adott, általánosan elfogadott javaslatokkal. Modellünk alapján kimutatható, hogy bár a zérus kamatszint elérésének valószínűsége nullára elméletileg sosem csökkenthető, a likviditási csapda deflációs spirálba való torkollása ugyanakkor az inflációs cél kellőképpen magas fokú hitelessége esetén elvileg kizárható. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E31, E52, E58.

Suggested Citation

  • Koppány, Krisztián, 2007. "Likviditási csapda és deflációs spirál egy inflációs célt követő modellben - a hitelesség szerepe [A liquidity trap and deflationary spiral in a model for pursuing an inflation target - the role of," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 974-1003.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:950
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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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