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Likviditási csapda és deflációs spirál egy inflációs célt követő modellben - a hitelesség szerepe
[A liquidity trap and deflationary spiral in a model for pursuing an inflation target - the role of credibility]

  • Koppány, Krisztián
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    A nominális kamatszint alsó határának elérése súlyos következményekkel járhat a makrogazdaság egyensúlya és stabilitása szempontjából. Ilyenkor a recesszióval és az infláció túl alacsony szintre szorításával fenyegető negatív sokkhatások a kamatpolitika hagyományos eszközeivel nem ellensúlyozhatók, s - másfajta keresletösztönző lépések híján - a gazdaság könnyen a minimális értéken állandósuló kamatszint állapotába, valamint az egyre inkább visszaeső kibocsátás és árszínvonal spiráljába kerülhet. Elméleti tanulmányunk ilyen helyzetek kialakulásának lehetőségeit vizsgálja egy egyszerű, stilizált makrogazdasági modellben. A likviditási csapda, illetve a deflációs spirál bekövetkezésének formálisan levezetett feltételei jól mutatják, hogy az inflációs cél kitűzése és a gazdaságra jellemző egyensúlyi reálkamatláb szintje, a sokkhatások jellege és nagysága, a jegybank ezekre adott kamatreakcióinak mértéke, valamint az inflációs cél hitelessége miként befolyásolják a kamatpolitika lehetőségeinek határait. A következetések párhuzamba állíthatók a likviditási csapda valószínűségére vonatkozó modellszámítások eredményeivel, valamint annak elkerülésére és az abból való kilábalásra adott, általánosan elfogadott javaslatokkal. Modellünk alapján kimutatható, hogy bár a zérus kamatszint elérésének valószínűsége nullára elméletileg sosem csökkenthető, a likviditási csapda deflációs spirálba való torkollása ugyanakkor az inflációs cél kellőképpen magas fokú hitelessége esetén elvileg kizárható. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E31, E52, E58.

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    Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

    Volume (Year): LIV (2007)
    Issue (Month): 11 ()
    Pages: 974-1003

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    Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:950
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