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Vezethet-e a válság deflációs spirálhoz?. Modellszámítások a likviditási csapdában lévő Egyesült Államokra
[Could the crisis lead to a deflationary spiral?. Modelling the United States in a liquidity trap]

  • Koppány, Krisztián
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    Az Egyesült Államok pénzpiaci kamatszintje 2008 utolsó negyedéve óta gyakorlatilag nulla százalékon áll, a világ legnagyobb gazdasága likviditási csapdában van. A nominális kamatláb alsó határértékének elérése a monetáris politika lehetőségeit jelentősen korlátozza, s ez súlyos következményekkel járhat a gazdasági egyensúly és stabilitás szempontjából: egy likviditási csapdában lévő gazdaság könnyen deflációs spirálba kerülhet. Az ilyen helyzetek kialakulásának és elkerülésének lehetőségét a szerző a Közgazdasági Szemle 2007. novemberi számában tárgyalta. Az elméleti megközelítés ebben a tanulmányban empirikus elemzéssel egészül ki, amelynek során arra a kérdésre keressük a választ: vezethet-e a válság deflációs spirálhoz az Egyesült Államokban. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E31, E52, E58.

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    Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

    Volume (Year): LVIII (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 197-228

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    Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1226
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    1. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Olivier J. Blanchard & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/03, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Leigh, Daniel, 2008. "Estimating the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target: A state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2013-2030, June.
    3. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-66, November.
    4. Lars E.O. Svensson & Stefan Gerlach, 2001. "Money and inflation in the Euro Area: A case for monetary indicators?," BIS Working Papers 98, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 1999. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    8. Michael Woodford, 2007. "The Case for Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
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