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Vezethet-e a válság deflációs spirálhoz?. Modellszámítások a likviditási csapdában lévő Egyesült Államokra
[Could the crisis lead to a deflationary spiral?. Modelling the United States in a liquidity trap]

Author

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  • Koppány, Krisztián

    ()

Abstract

Az Egyesült Államok pénzpiaci kamatszintje 2008 utolsó negyedéve óta gyakorlatilag nulla százalékon áll, a világ legnagyobb gazdasága likviditási csapdában van. A nominális kamatláb alsó határértékének elérése a monetáris politika lehetőségeit jelentősen korlátozza, s ez súlyos következményekkel járhat a gazdasági egyensúly és stabilitás szempontjából: egy likviditási csapdában lévő gazdaság könnyen deflációs spirálba kerülhet. Az ilyen helyzetek kialakulásának és elkerülésének lehetőségét a szerző a Közgazdasági Szemle 2007. novemberi számában tárgyalta. Az elméleti megközelítés ebben a tanulmányban empirikus elemzéssel egészül ki, amelynek során arra a kérdésre keressük a választ: vezethet-e a válság deflációs spirálhoz az Egyesült Államokban. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E31, E52, E58.

Suggested Citation

  • Koppány, Krisztián, 2011. "Vezethet-e a válság deflációs spirálhoz?. Modellszámítások a likviditási csapdában lévő Egyesült Államokra
    [Could the crisis lead to a deflationary spiral?. Modelling the United States in a liquidi
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 197-228.
  • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1226
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    2. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    3. Leigh, Daniel, 2008. "Estimating the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target: A state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2013-2030, June.
    4. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-966, November.
    5. Michael Woodford, 2007. "The Case for Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    9. David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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