IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iaecre/v14y2008i2p156-16610.1007-s11294-008-9148-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Taylor Rule in Practice: Evidence from Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Nejla Adanur Aklan
  • Mehmet Nargelecekenler

Abstract

This paper estimates the backward-looking and forward-looking monetary policy reaction functions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) by considering the post-crisis period from August 2001 to September 2006, with a special emphasis on inflation targeting. Policies which the CBRT applied are analyzed according to the Taylor rule. The empirical results indicate that the CBRT followed the Taylor rule in its interest setting behaviour. In forward-looking models, the response coefficient of inflation and the output gap is greater than that of backward-looking models. The results of forward-looking models reflect, the policies conducted in Turkey. In the post-crisis period, expected inflation has been the main reaction variable for the CBRT. This suggests that monetary policy over the post-crisis period was not accommodating increases in expected inflation. The main conclusion is that ‘Taylor rule’ based monetary policies were effective in inflation targeting in Turkey. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Nejla Adanur Aklan & Mehmet Nargelecekenler, 2008. "Taylor Rule in Practice: Evidence from Turkey," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 156-166, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:156-166:10.1007/s11294-008-9148-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-008-9148-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11294-008-9148-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11294-008-9148-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    4. Carlos Végh, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Rules, and Inflation Targeting: Some Basic Equivalences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Fernando Lefort & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Serie (ed.),Indexation, Inflation and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 151-182, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Alternative monetary policy rules : a comparison with historical settings for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 49-79.
    6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "The role of policy rules in inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Jul), pages 89-112.
    9. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    10. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    12. M. Ege Yazgan & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2007. "Monetary policy rules in practice: evidence from Turkey and Israel," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-8.
    13. Taylor Mark P. & Davradakis Emmanuel, 2006. "Interest Rate Setting and Inflation Targeting: Evidence of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule for the United Kingdom," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, December.
    14. Hakan Berument & Hakan Taşçi, 2004. "Monetary policy rules in practice: evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 33-38.
    15. Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2004. "Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves Using Exact Methods," Staff Working Papers 04-11, Bank of Canada.
    16. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
    18. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:2:p:125-134 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    20. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    21. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
    22. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 77-146.
    23. King, Mervyn, 1997. "Changes in UK monetary policy: Rules and discretion in practice," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 81-97, June.
    24. John Huston & Roger Spencer, 2005. "International Monetary Policy: A Global Taylor Rule," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 125-134, May.
    25. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
    26. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    27. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    28. GORDON De BROUWER & JAMES GILBERT, 2005. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 124-134, June.
    29. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
    30. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2003. "Empirical estimates of reaction functions for the euro area," Working Paper Series 206, European Central Bank.
    31. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yağcıbaşı Özge Filiz & Yıldırım Mustafa Ozan, 2017. "Welfare Implications of Alternative Monetary Policy Rules: A New Keynesian DSGE Model for Turkey," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(4), pages 363-379, December.
    2. Baris Soybilen & Burak Alparslan Eroglu, 2019. "Time-Varying Taylor Rule Estimation for Turkey with Flexible Least Square Method," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 1-20.
    3. Tolga Dağlaroğlu & Baki Demirel & Syed F. Mahmud, 2018. "Monetary policy implications of short-term capital flows in Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 747-763, November.
    4. Imen Mohamed Sghaier & Zouheir Abida, 2013. "Monetary Policy Rules for a Developing Countries: Evidence from Tunisia," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 5(1), pages 035-046, June.
    5. Guo, Yingwen & Zhou Z.F., Sherry, 2011. "Duration Analysis of Interest Rate Spells : Cross-National Study of Interest Rate Policy," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 52(1), pages 1-11, June.
    6. José Fajgenbaum & Harpaul Alberto Kohli, 2016. "Resilience Index: A 2016 Update," Papers Presented at Global Meetings of the Emerging Markets Forum 2016resilience, Emerging Markets Forum.
    7. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Time-varying parameters in monetary policy rules: a GMM approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(9), pages 148-176, January.
    8. Imen Mohamed Sghaier, 2012. "Taylor Rule and Monetary Policy in Tunisia," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 143-166, December.
    9. Umit Bulut, 2019. "Does the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Respond Asymmetrically to Inflation and Output?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(4), pages 381-400, November.
    10. Ümit BULUT, 2019. "The Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Turkey: Evidence from Fourier-Based Time Series Methods," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(2), pages 159-173, December.
    11. ERDEM Ekrem & BULUT Umit & KOCAK Emrah, 2017. "Have Financial Stability Concerns Changed The Priority Of The Central Bank Of The Republic Of Turkey?," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 35-45, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:156-166 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chaouech, Olfa, 2015. "Taylor rule in practice: Evidence from Tunisia," MPRA Paper 74628, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2016.
    3. Chaouech, Olfa, 2015. "Taylor rule in practice : Evidence from tunisia," MPRA Paper 66771, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Sep 2015.
    4. Giray Gozgor, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules: Further Evidence from the Case of Turkey," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(5), pages 1-7.
    5. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    6. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    7. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    8. Imen Mohamed Sghaier & Zouheir Abida, 2013. "Monetary Policy Rules for a Developing Countries: Evidence from Tunisia," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 5(1), pages 035-046, June.
    9. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo.
    10. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    11. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    12. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    13. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    14. Shawn Chen‐Yu Leu & Jeffrey Sheen, 2006. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 85-96, September.
    15. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    16. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 249-256, November.
    17. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    18. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    19. Robert Tchaidze & Alina Carare, 2004. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How precisely can we estimate them?," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 132, Econometric Society.
    20. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    21. Hartmann, Daniel, 2001. "Taylor-Regel und amerikanische Geldpolitik," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 17/2001, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkey; Inflation targeting; Taylor rule; Monetary policy; Reaction function; GMM; E40;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:156-166:10.1007/s11294-008-9148-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.