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Duration Analysis of Interest Rate Spells : Cross-National Study of Interest Rate Policy

Author

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  • Guo, Yingwen
  • Zhou Z.F., Sherry

Abstract

A duration analysis is adopted in this study to investigate the determinants of the "interest rate spells" across ten countries (or area) . Both parametric and nonparametric methods are employed for the analysis. It is found that the length of "interest rate spells" is affected by both the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth. In contrast, the influence of exchange and unemployment rates proved to be insignificant and the lagged interest rate is significant only for Denmark. The empirical results support the contention that central banks usually design their interest rate policies based on the Taylor Rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Yingwen & Zhou Z.F., Sherry, 2011. "Duration Analysis of Interest Rate Spells : Cross-National Study of Interest Rate Policy," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 52(1), pages 1-11, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:hitjec:v:52:y:2011:i:1:p:1-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Alastair R. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2003. "The large sample behaviour of the generalized method of moments estimator in misspecified models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 361-394, June.
    2. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    3. Zhou, Yong & Wan, Alan T.K. & Xie, Shangyu & Wang, Xiaojing, 2010. "Wavelet analysis of change-points in a non-parametric regression with heteroscedastic variance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 183-201, November.
    4. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    5. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:156-166 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
    7. Ruby Shih & David E. A. Giles, 2006. "Modelling the Duration of Interest Rate Spells Under Inflation Targeting in Canada," Econometrics Working Papers 0605, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    8. Zhou, Yong & Wan, Alan T. K & Wang, Xiaojing, 2008. "Estimating Equations Inference With Missing Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(483), pages 1187-1199.
    9. Ada Ho & Alan Wan, 2002. "Testing for covariance stationarity of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks: an intervention analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 441-447.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Duration Analysis; Taylor Rule; Parametric Models; Nonparametric Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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