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Testing for covariance stationarity of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks: an intervention analysis

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  • Ada Ho
  • Alan Wan

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the stock return series of Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and the US are covariance stationary using Omran and McKenzie's (The Statistician, 48, 361-69, 1999) testing procedure which comprises the Loretan and Phillips (1994) test and an intervention analysis. The main objective of the procedure is to ascertain the role of structural breaks on the stochastic properties of the stock return series. It is found that the intervention due to the 1997 Asian financial crisis is significant in the case of Hong Kong and Singapore, for which the hypothesis of covariance stationarity cannot be rejected after the effects of the financial crisis have been properly filtered. On the other hand, the evidence suggests that neither the Asian crisis nor the 1998 currency crisis of Russia and Latin America has any significant impact on the stock return series of Australia and the US, which are found to be covariance stationary and covariance nonstationary, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Ada Ho & Alan Wan, 2002. "Testing for covariance stationarity of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks: an intervention analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 441-447.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:9:y:2002:i:7:p:441-447 DOI: 10.1080/13504850110090210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2001. "El Desempleo en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 176, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Balmaseda, Manuel & Dolado, Juan J & Lopez-Salido, J David, 2000. "The Dynamic Effects of Shocks to Labour Markets: Evidence from OECD Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 3-23, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Worthington & Abbas Valadkhani, 2005. "Catastrophic Shocks and Capital Markets: A Comparative Analysis by Disaster and Sector," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 331-344.
    2. Shih-Jui Yang & Ai-Chi Hsu & Show-Yen Lai & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2015. "Empirical Investigation of Herding Behavior in East Asian Stock Markets Toward the U.S. Market," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, pages 19-32.
    3. Mahua Barari & Nityananda Sarkar & Srikanta Kundu & Kushal Banik Chowdhury, 2014. "Forecasting House Prices in the United States with Multiple Structural Breaks," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, April.
    4. Andrew Worthington & Abbas Valadkhani, 2004. "Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: an empirical application using intervention analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2177-2186.
    5. Guo, Yingwen & Zhou Z.F., Sherry, 2011. "Duration Analysis of Interest Rate Spells : Cross-National Study of Interest Rate Policy," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 52(1), pages 1-11, June.
    6. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005. "Pre- and Post-Dynamic GST Effects on Goods and Services Included in the CPI Basket," Economics Working Papers wp05-08, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

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