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Pre- and Post-Dynamic GST Effects on Goods and Services Included in the CPI Basket

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Abstract

This paper quantifies the magnitude and duration of the GST effect on the quarterly growth rate of the eleven groups of the consumer price index (CPI) in Australia using the Box and Tiao intervention analysis. It was found that prices did not increase significantly before or after the introduction of GST beyond what could have been expected on the basis of the discernible systematic pattern of fluctuation in the data. Furthermore, the varying one-off effect of GST on prices was significant in seven out of eleven CPI groups, the effect was found insignificant for the other four CPI groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005. "Pre- and Post-Dynamic GST Effects on Goods and Services Included in the CPI Basket," Economics Working Papers wp05-08, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp05-08
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    File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012191.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Dawkins & David Johnson, 1998. "The Interaction of Tax and Social Security: Introduction and Overview," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 31(3), pages 258-262, September.
    2. Abbas Valadkhani & Allan P. Layton, 2004. "Quantifying the Effect of the GST on Inflation in Australia's Capital Cities: An Intervention Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 37(2), pages 125-138, June.
    3. Ada Ho & Alan Wan, 2002. "Testing for covariance stationarity of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks: an intervention analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 441-447.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intervention Analysis; Goods and Services Tax; Australia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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