Modelling the Duration of Interest Rate Spells Under Inflation Targeting in Canada
We use survival models to analyze the duration of the spells associated with the interest rate used by the Bank of Canada as its monetary policy instrument. Both non-parametric and parametric models are estimated, allowing for right-censoring of the data, and time-varying covariates. We find that the data are explained well by an accelerated failure time Weibull model, with the annual rate of inflation and the quarterly rate of growth in GDP as covariates. The model indicates that there is positive duration dependence in the interest rate spells, and that unemployment and exchange rate effects are insignificant.
|Date of creation:||08 Sep 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W 2Y2|
Web page: http://web.uvic.ca/econ
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Giles, 2007.
"Survival of the hippest: life at the top of the hot 100,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(15), pages 1877-1887.
- David E. Giles, 2005. "Survival of the Hippest: Life at the Top of the Hot 100," Econometrics Working Papers 0507, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
- Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Layoffs, Recall and the Duration of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dib, Ali, 2006. "Nominal rigidities and monetary policy in Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 303-325, June.
- Kennan, John, 1985. "The duration of contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 5-28, April.
- Jiri Jonas & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects," NBER Working Papers 9667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)