IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Explaining Non-Negative Duration Dependence Among the Unemployed

  • Pieter Serneels

    (Centre for the Study of African Economies)

We investigate why we observe non-negative duration dependence among young unemployed men in urban Ethiopia. Assuming that genuine duration dependence is negative, there are five explanations for a non-decreasing hazard: the presence of unemployment benefits, the existence of Active Labour Market Policies, the change in labour demand, segmentation of the labour market, and unemployment as a queuing phenomenon. We test each of these explanations and find that labour market segmentation is the only convincing one. We also establish that genuine duration dependence is indeed negative in the long run.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/dev/papers/0409/0409013.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0409013.

as
in new window

Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 15 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0409013
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 46
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. A. B. Atkinson, 1999. "The Economic Consequences of Rolling Back the Welfare State," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262011719, June.
  2. Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 2001. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 436-48, October.
  3. Gerard J. van den Berg & Bas van der Klaauw, 1998. "Combining Micro and Macro Unemployment Duration Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-098/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Hernaes, E. & Strom, S., 1995. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Duration," Memorandum 28/1995, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  5. Gilles SAINT-PAUL, 2002. "Productivity, Social Interaction and Communication," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2002022, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  6. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 417-434.
  7. Taye Mengistae, 1998. "Wage rates and job queues: does the public sector overpay in Ethiopia?," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1998-20, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Moffitt, Robert, 1985. "Unemployment insurance and the distribution of unemployment spells," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-101, April.
  9. Ham, John C & Rea, Samuel A, Jr, 1987. "Unemployment Insurance and Male Unemployment Duration in Canada," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(3), pages 325-53, July.
  10. Vodopivec, Milan, 1995. "Unemployment insurance and duration of unemployment : evidence from Slovenia's transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1552, The World Bank.
  11. Lynch, Lisa M, 1989. "The Youth Labor Market in the Eighties: Determinants of Re-employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 37-45, February.
  12. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1996. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 100-125, January.
  13. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," NBER Working Papers 0979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Narendranathan, W & Stewart, Mark B, 1993. "How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 361-81, Oct.-Dec..
  15. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  16. Gregory, Mary & Jukes, Robert, 2001. "Unemployment and Subsequent Earnings: Estimating Scarring among British Men 1984-94," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F607-25, November.
  17. Ackum, Susanne, 1991. " Youth Unemployment, Labor Market Programs and Subsequent Earnings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(4), pages 531-43.
  18. Gerard J. van den Berg & Jan C. van Ours, 1999. "Duration dependence and heterogeneity in French youth unemployment durations," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 273-285.
  19. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F626-53, November.
  20. Abbring, J.H. & van den Berg, G. & van Ours, J.C., 1999. "The Anatomy of Unemployment Dynamics," Discussion Paper 1999-81, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  21. Mark C. Foley, 1997. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 81, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  22. Foley, M.C., 1997. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia," Papers 779, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  23. van den Berg, Gerard J, 1990. "Search Behaviour, Transitions to Nonparticipation and the Duration of Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 842-65, September.
  24. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1994. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence in France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 432-43, March.
  25. Geeta G. Kingdon & John B. Knight, 2000. "Are searching and non-searching unemployment distinct states when unemployment is high? The case of South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  26. Jean-Yves Bienvenue & Lucette Carter & Olivier Favereau & Jacques Zighera, 1997. "Differential Analysis of Unemployment Duration with Emphasis on Long-Term Unemployment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 11(1), pages 53-82, 04.
  27. Pieter Serneels, 2007. "The Nature of Unemployment among Young Men in Urban Ethiopia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 170-186, 02.
  28. Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1992. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 439-479.
  29. Groot, Wim, 1990. "The effects of benefits and duration dependence on re-employment probabilities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 371-376, April.
  30. Rama, Martin, 1999. "The Sri Lankan unemployment problem revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2227, The World Bank.
  31. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
  32. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2000. "Is Unemployment Really Scarring? Effects of Unemployment Experiences on Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 189, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  33. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1995. "The career decisions of young men," Working Papers 559, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  34. Rama, Martin, 1998. "How Bad Is Unemployment in Tunisia? Assessing Labor Market Efficiency in a Developing Country," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 13(1), pages 59-77, February.
  35. Tunali, Insan & Assaad, Ragui, 1992. "Market Structure and Spells of Employment and Unemployment: Evidence from the Construction Sector in Egypt," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 339-67, Oct.-Dec..
  36. T. Addison, John & Portugal, Pedro, 1998. "Some specification issues in unemployment duration analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 53-66, March.
  37. William T. Dickens & Kevin Lang, 1991. "An Analysis of the Nature of Unemployment in Sri Lanka," NBER Working Papers 3777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Martina Lubyova & Jan C. van Ours, 1999. "Unemployment durations of job losers in a labour market in transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 7(3), pages 665-686, November.
  39. David Turnham, 1993. "Employment Creation and Development Strategy," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 7, OECD Publishing.
  40. J Richardson, 1997. "Can Active Labour Market Policy Work? Some Theoretical Considerations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0331, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  41. Torelli, Nicola & Trivellato, Ugo, 1989. "Youth unemployment duration from the Italian labour force survey: Accuracy issues and modelling attempts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 407-415, March.
  42. J. Richardson, 1997. "Can active labour market policy work? Some theoretical considerations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20354, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  43. Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Layoffs, Recall and the Duration of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Appleton, Simon & Knight, John & Song, Lina & Xia, Qingjie, 2002. "Labor retrenchment in China: Determinants and consequences," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 252-275.
  45. Micklewright, John & Nagy, Gyula, 1996. "Labour market policy and the unemployed in Hungary," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 819-828, April.
  46. Jackman, Richard & Layard, Richard, 1991. "Does Long-term Unemployment Reduce a Person's Chance of a Job? A Time-Series Test," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(229), pages 93-106, February.
  47. Krishnan, Pramila, 1996. "Family Background, Education and Employment in Urban Ethiopia," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(1), pages 167-83, February.
  48. Korpi, Tomas, 1995. "Effects of Manpower Policies on Duration Dependence in Re-employment Rates: The Example of Sweden," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(247), pages 353-71, August.
  49. Glewwe, P. & Jacoby, H., 1992. "Estimating the Determinants of Cognitive Achivement in Low-Income Countries," Papers 91, World Bank - Living Standards Measurement.
  50. Gronau, Reuben, 1971. "Information and Frictional Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 290-301, June.
  51. Paul Glewwe & Nauman Ilias, 1996. "The determinants of school attainment in sub-Saharan Africa: A case study of Ghana," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 395-413.
  52. Tenjo, Jaime, 1990. "Opportunities, Aspirations, and Urban Unemployment of Youth: The Case of Colombia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(4), pages 733-61, July.
  53. Trivedi, P K & Alexander, J N, 1989. "Reemployment Probability and Multiple Unemployment Spells: A Partial-Likelihood Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 395-401, July.
  54. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, July.
  55. Edin, Per-Anders, 1989. " Unemployment Duration and Competing Risks: Evidence from Sweden," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 639-53.
  56. Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1993. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence in France, the Netherlands and the UK," Serie Research Memoranda 0038, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  57. Lynch, Lisa M., 1985. "State dependency in youth unemployment : A lost generation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 71-84, April.
  58. Arulampalam, Wiji & Stewart, Mark B, 1995. "The Determinants of Individual Unemployment Durations in an Era of High Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 321-32, March.
  59. Mark C. Foley, 1997. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia," Working Papers 779, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  60. Meghir, Costas & Ioannides, Yannis & Pissarides, Christopher, 1989. "Female participation and male unemployment duration in Greece: Evidence from the labour force survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 395-406, March.
  61. Chris Elbers & Geert Ridder, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 403-409.
  62. Nickell, Stephen J, 1979. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1249-66, September.
  63. Trivedi, P K & Hui, W T, 1987. "An Empirical Study of Long-term Unemployment in Australia," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 20-42, January.
  64. Groot, Wim, 1990. "Heterogeneous Jobs and Re-employment Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(3), pages 253-67, August.
  65. Alfonso Alba-Ramírez, 1998. "Re-employment probabilities of young workers in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 22(2), pages 201-224, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0409013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.