The anatomy of unemployment dynamics
This paper examines the relation between individual unemployment durations and incidence on the one hand, and the time-varying macroeconomic conditions in the economy on the other. We allow for calendar time effects acting on the exit probabilities for all currently unemployed. We also allow for the composition of the inflow into unemployment to depend on calendar time at the moment of inflow. In both cases we distinguish between business cycle effects and seasonal effects. We apply the model to aggregate unemployment duration data, in which we allow for unobserved heterogeneity and correlated measurement errors. We do not make parametric assumptions on the genuine duration dependence pattern or the unobserved heterogeneity distribution. The results enable us to give a complete decomposition of the dynamics of unemployment over calendar time. This is also used to test the popular ranking model of unemployment.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||1994|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.feweb.vu.nl|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
- van den Berg, Gerard J, 1990. "Nonstationarity in Job Search Theory," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 255-77, April.
- Michael R. Darby & John Haltiwanger & Mark Plant, 1984.
"Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under RAtional Expectations,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
339, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Darby, Michael R & Haltiwanger, John C & Plant, Mark W, 1985. "Unemployment Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment under Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 614-37, September.
- Michael R. Darby & John C. Haltiwanger & Mark W. Plant, 1985. "Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1990.
"Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages,"
NBER Working Papers
3387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 2001.
"Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 436-48, October.
- Abbring, J.H. & van den Berg, G. & van Ours, J.C., 1999. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment," Discussion Paper 1999-65, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1997. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in US Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 1702, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1993.
"Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence,"
Serie Research Memoranda
0022, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- van den Berg, Gerard J, 1994. "The Effects of Changes of the Job Offer Arrival Rate on the Duration of Unemployment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(3), pages 478-98, July.
- Vishwanath, Tara, 1989. "Job Search, Stigma Effect, and Escape Rate from Unemployment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(4), pages 487-502, October.
- Joel L. Horowitz, 1999. "Semiparametric Estimation of a Proportional Hazard Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1001-1028, September.
- Dynarski, Mark & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1990. "The Behavior of Unemployment Durations over the Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 350-56, May.
- Van den Berg, G J & Lindeboom, M & Ridder, G, 1994.
"Attrition in Longitudinal Panel Data and the Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Labour Market Behaviour,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 421-35, Oct.-Dec..
- Berg, G.J. & Lindeboom, M. & Ridder, G., 1993. "Attrition in longitudinal panel data, and the empirical analysis of dynamic labour market behaviour," Serie Research Memoranda 0014, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Jackman, Richard & Layard, Richard, 1991. "Does Long-term Unemployment Reduce a Person's Chance of a Job? A Time-Series Test," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(229), pages 93-106, February.
- van den Berg, G. & van Ours, J.C., 1996. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Other publications TiSEM 4374742f-8d86-458d-9ab3-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Elbers, Chris & Ridder, Geert, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 403-09, July.
- Melino, Angelo & Sueyoshi, Glenn T., 1990. "A simple approach to the identifiability of the proportional hazards model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 63-68, May.
- Butler, Richard J & McDonald, James B, 1986. "Trends in Unemployment Duration Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 545-57, November.
- Baker, Michael, 1992. "Unemployment Duration: Compositional Effects and Cyclical Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 313-21, March.
- repec:fth:inseep:9216 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vua:wpaper:1994-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (R. Dam)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.