IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/obuest/v66y2004i2p205-237.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unemployment Experiences of Young Men: on the Road to Stable Employment?

Author

Listed:
  • Adriaan S. Kalwij

Abstract

This study examines the unemployment experiences of young men in the United Kingdom over the period 1982.IV–1998.I. The empirical results show that repeated unemployment is a dominant feature of the UK labour market and that individual heterogeneity affects mainly the incidence of unemployment and only to a much lesser extent the duration of unemployment. We estimate that about 73% of the young unemployed find stable employment before the age of 35. The remaining 27%, concentrated among the lower‐skilled, keep returning into unemployment, suggesting structural employment instability. These findings imply that a labour market programme targeted at increasing the employability of the young unemployed would yield long‐term benefits by not only getting them out of unemployment but also keeping them out of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Adriaan S. Kalwij, 2004. "Unemployment Experiences of Young Men: on the Road to Stable Employment?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(2), pages 205-237, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:66:y:2004:i:2:p:205-237
    DOI: 10.1046/j.0305-9049.2003.00097.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0305-9049.2003.00097.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1046/j.0305-9049.2003.00097.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erdem, Esra & Glyn, Andrew, 2001. "Job Deficits in UK Regions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(0), pages 737-752, Special I.
    2. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    3. Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1993. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence in France, the Netherlands and the UK," Serie Research Memoranda 0038, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    4. Dolton, Peter J & Makepeace, Gerald H & Treble, John G, 1994. "The Youth Training Scheme and the School-to-Work Transition," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(4), pages 629-657, October.
    5. Brian Bell & Richard Blundell & John Reenen, 1999. "Getting the Unemployed Back to Work: The Role of Targeted Wage Subsidies," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(3), pages 339-360, August.
    6. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    7. Akerlof, George A & Main, Brian G M, 1980. "Unemployment Spells and Unemployment Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 885-893, December.
    8. Dynarski, Mark & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1990. "The Behavior of Unemployment Durations over the Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 350-356, May.
    9. Baker, Michael, 1992. "Unemployment Duration: Compositional Effects and Cyclical Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 313-321, March.
    10. Olympia Bover & Manuel Arellano & Samuel Bentolila, 2002. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 223-265, April.
    11. Dolton, Peter & O'Neill, Donal, 1996. "Unemployment Duration and the Restart Effect: Some Experimental Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 387-400, March.
    12. Hélène Turon, 2003. "Inflow Composition, Duration Dependence and their Impact on the Unemployment Outflow Rate," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(1), pages 31-47, February.
    13. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    14. Baker, Michael & Melino, Angelo, 2000. "Duration dependence and nonparametric heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 357-393, June.
    15. Nickell, Stephen J, 1979. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1249-1266, September.
    16. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
    17. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1994. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence in France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 432-443, March.
    18. Huh, Keun & Sickles, Robin C, 1994. "Estimation of the Duration Model by Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Penalized Likelihood, and Probability Simulators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 683-694, November.
    19. Viktor Steiner, 2001. "Unemployment Persistence in the West German Labour Market: Negative Duration Dependence or Sorting?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(1), pages 91-113, February.
    20. Narendranathan, Wiji & Elias, Peter, 1993. "Influences of Past History on the Incidence of Youth Unemployment: Empirical Findings for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(2), pages 161-185, May.
    21. repec:aia:aiaswp:wp20 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Arulampalam, Wiji & Stewart, Mark B, 1995. "The Determinants of Individual Unemployment Durations in an Era of High Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 321-332, March.
    23. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
    24. Christopher A. Pissarides, 1992. "Loss of Skill During Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-1391.
    25. Burgess, Simon M, 1992. "The Flow into Unemployment in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 888-895, July.
    26. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages 626-653, November.
    27. Chris Elbers & Geert Ridder, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(3), pages 403-409.
    28. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amparo Nagore García & Arthur van Soest, 2017. "New job matches and their stability before and during the crisis," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(7), pages 975-995, October.
    2. Achim Schmillen & Joachim Möller, 2009. "Determinants of Lifetime Unemployment - A Micro Data Analysis with Censored Quantile Regressions," Working Papers 275, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    3. Kilhoffer, Zachary & Beblav�, Miroslav & Lenaerts, Karolien, 2018. "Blame it on my youth! Policy recommendations for re-evaluating and reducing youth unemployment," CEPS Papers 13342, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    4. Dorsett, Richard, 2014. "The effect of temporary in-work support on employment retention: Evidence from a field experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 61-71.
    5. Dr Richard Dorsett, 2013. "Can Post-Employment Services Combined with Financial Incentives Improve Employment Retention for Welfare Recipients? Evidence from the Texas Employment Retention and Advancement Evaluation," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 409, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    6. Dorsett, Richard & Lucchino, Paolo, 2018. "Young people's labour market transitions: The role of early experiences," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 29-46.
    7. Schmillen, Achim & Möller, Joachim, 2012. "Distribution and determinants of lifetime unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-47.
    8. Jouko Verho, 2005. "Unemployment Duration and Business Cycles in Finland," Working Papers 214, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    9. Ralf Wilke, 2009. "Unemployment Duration in the United Kingdom: An Incomplete Data Approach," Discussion Papers 09/02, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
    10. Dr Richard Dorsett, 2013. "Can Post-Employment Services Combined with Financial Incentives Improve Employment Retention for Welfare Recipients? Evidence from the Texas Employment Retention and Advancement Evaluation," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 409, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kalwij, Adriaan, 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Experiences: Heterogeneity and Business Cycle Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 370, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "Unemployment durations and the pattern of duration dependence over the business cycle of British males," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 429-456, April.
    3. Jouko Verho, 2005. "Unemployment Duration and Business Cycles in Finland," Working Papers 214, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    4. Ochsen, Carsten, 2008. "How the distribution of unemployment by duration affects the unemployment rate," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 88, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    5. Bart Cockx & Muriel Dejemeppe, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23, January.
    6. Knut Roed & Tao Zhang, 2003. "Does Unemployment Compensation Affect Unemployment Duration?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 190-206, January.
    7. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pc:p:3085-3139 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kalwij, Adriaan, 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Durations over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 369, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Abbring, Jaap H. & van den Berg, Gerard J. & van Ours, Jan C., 2002. "The anatomy of unemployment dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1785-1824, December.
    10. Gaure, Simen & Roed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2007. "Time and causality: A Monte Carlo assessment of the timing-of-events approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1159-1195, December.
    11. Roed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2005. "Unemployment duration and economic incentives--a quasi random-assignment approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1799-1825, October.
    12. Taylor, Mark P & Böheim, René, 2000. "Unemployment Duration and Exit States in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 2500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Pieter Serneels, 2004. "The Nature of Unemployment in Urban Ethiopia," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-01, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    14. Céspedes, Nikita & Gutiérrez, Ana Paola & Belapatiño, Vanessa, 2013. "Determinantes de la duración del desempleo en una economía con alta informalidad," Working Papers 2013-022, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    15. Hausman, Jerry A. & Woutersen, Tiemen, 2014. "Estimating a semi-parametric duration model without specifying heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 114-131.
    16. Boheim, Rene & Taylor, Mark P., 2002. "The search for success: do the unemployed find stable employment?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 717-735, December.
    17. Guell, Maia & Hu, Luojia, 2006. "Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 307-341, July.
    18. Dario Pozzoli, 2009. "The Transition to Work for Italian University Graduates," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(1), pages 131-169, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:66:y:2004:i:2:p:205-237. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.