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Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data

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  • Maia Güell
  • Luojia Hu

Abstract

We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. The proposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important features: (1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and (2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflow composition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposed estimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changes in distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a period of labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leaving unemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployed becomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Maia Güell & Luojia Hu, 2003. "Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data," Economics Working Papers 688, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:688
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    Cited by:

    1. Mundra, Kusum & Rios-Avila, Fernando, 2016. "Immigrant Birthcountry Networks and Unemployment Duration: Evidence around the Great Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 10233, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Brochu, Pierre, 2011. "Estimating labour market transitions and continuations using repeated cross sectional data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 84-87, April.
    3. Carlos Usabiaga & Pablo Álvarez de Toledo & Fernando Núñez, 2013. "Labour Market Segmentation, Clusters, Mobility And Unemployment Duration With Individual Microdata," EcoMod2013 5688, EcoMod.
    4. Belapatiño, Vanessa & Céspedes, Nikita & Gutierrez, Ana Paola, 2014. "La duración del desempleo en Lima Metropolitana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 27, pages 67-80.
    5. Bruce Meyer & Robert Goerge, 2011. "Errors in Survey Reporting and Imputation and Their Effects on Estimates of Food Stamp Program Participation," Working Papers 11-14, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Bemjamin Villena-Roldan, 2009. "Aggregate Implications of Employer Search and Recruiting Selection," 2009 Meeting Papers 97, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Céspedes, Nikita & Gutiérrez, Ana Paola & Belapatiño, Vanessa, 2013. "Determinantes de la duración del desempleo en una economía con alta informalidad," Working Papers 2013-022, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    8. Valletta, Robert G., 2013. "House lock and structural unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 86-97.
    9. Carlos Gradín & Olga Cantó & Coral del Río, 2015. "Unemployment and spell duration during the Great Recession in the EU," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 216-235, May.
    10. Stephen Bazen & Xavier Joutard & Mouhamadou Niang, 2014. "The measurement of unemployment using completed durations: evidence on the gender gap in unemployment in France," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 12(4), pages 517-534, December.
    11. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F., 2013. "Measuring poverty dynamics with synthetic panels based on cross-sections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6504, The World Bank.
    12. Stephen Bazen & Xavier Joutard & Mouhamadou M. Niang, 2012. "The Duration-Based Measurement of Unemployment: Estimation Issues and an Application to Male-Female Unemployment Differences in France," Working Papers halshs-00793056, HAL.
    13. Seik Kim, "undated". "Economic Assimilation of Foreign-Born Workers in the United States: An Overlapping Rotating Panel Analysis," Working Papers UWEC-2008-19, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    14. Carlos Usabiaga & Fernando Núñez & Pablo Álvarez de Toledo, 2013. "Segmentación del mercado de trabajo, clusters, movilidad y duración de desempleo con datos individuales," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2013/02, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    15. Álvarez de Toledo, Pablo & Núñez, Fernando & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2014. "An empirical approach on labour segmentation. Applications with individual duration data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 252-267.
    16. Seik Kim, "undated". "Sample Attrition in the Presence of Population Attrition," Working Papers UWEC-2009-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    17. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements into and out of poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 112-128.
    18. Cristina Lafuente, 2017. "Search capital and Unemployment Duration (Preliminary)," ESE Discussion Papers 283, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Repeated cross-section data. GMM; duration analysis; unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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